RBI Governor: Policy rates to stay stable or lower amid risks, post-February hold

Following the RBI's February decision to maintain rates at 5.25%, Governor Sanjay Malhotra reiterated that policy rates are likely to remain at current levels or decrease for an extended period. He cited benign inflation and low underlying inflation expectations but cautioned on risks and global uncertainties influencing growth-inflation dynamics.

In comments after the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) February Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which held the repo rate at 5.25% amid improved growth from the India-US trade deal, Governor Sanjay Malhotra outlined a cautious outlook. "While policy rates in India are likely to stay at current levels or even go lower for an extended period, there are risks as well," he said during a recent discussion.

Malhotra highlighted current benign inflation indicators and expectations for low underlying inflation ahead. However, future decisions will hinge on evolving growth-inflation dynamics. He also stressed broader challenges: "We are still living in very uncertain times," underscoring difficulties in forecasting amid global and domestic volatility.

This reflects the RBI's balanced approach to supporting growth while ensuring price stability, building on the MPC's neutral stance and optimism from trade pacts and stable external accounts.

Keywords: RBI, interest rates, monetary policy, India economy.

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RBI headquarters with repo rate display amid West Asia conflict indicators, for monetary policy news illustration.
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RBI holds repo rate at 5.25% amid West Asia conflict

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The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday kept the key policy rate, the repo rate, unchanged at 5.25 per cent. Amid uncertainties from the West Asia conflict, the committee retained its neutral stance. It has lowered the GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent for FY27.

The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% in its February meeting, citing improved growth prospects from the recent India-US trade deal. This pauses a series of rate cuts from 2025 amid benign inflation. The decision reflects optimism about GDP growth and external sector stability.

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Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the central bank is in “wait and watch mode” amid uncertainties from the West Asia war, with second-round effects being the real concern. In a speech at Princeton University on April 18, he stressed preventing supply shocks from embedding in price levels through inflation expectations rather than demand compression. He highlighted India’s significant exposure to the region.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority kept its base rate at 4% unchanged, mirroring the US Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady. This leaves borrowers in the city waiting longer for funding costs to fall amid ongoing uncertainties. The authority urged the public to manage interest rate risks carefully in decisions on property, investments, or borrowing.

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Colombia's central bank may hike its policy rate by 50 basis points to 9.75% at its January 30 meeting, according to analysts surveyed by Anif and Corficolombiana. The move would address 2025 inflation of 5.15% and a 23% minimum wage increase that has boosted inflation expectations. The global context, with steady Fed rates and Brazil's policy, shapes the local outlook.

Colombia's financial market anticipates that the Banco de la República will raise its interest rate at the January 30, 2026 meeting, according to a Citi survey. Out of 25 consulted entities, 17 expect an adjustment to 9.75%, while only five foresee it staying at 9.5%. This outlook is driven by the minimum wage increase and inflation projected at 5.8%.

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Banco Central president Gabriel Galípolo called for caution in Brazil's interest rate policy on Monday amid global uncertainties from the Iran war. Speaking at a seminar in Rio de Janeiro, he stressed taking safer steps to address inflation pressures. Former BC president Arminio Fraga criticized the government's fiscal policy for not supporting the central bank.

 

 

 

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