Colombia's net public debt approaches fiscal anchor

The Central National Government's debt policy adjusts within parameters of a suspended fiscal rule. In the third quarter of 2025, net debt reached 57.3% of GDP, heading toward the 55% anchor limit. Strategies such as substituting external debt with internal aim to stabilize public finances.

Colombia's public debt, acquired through issuances of titles like bonds and TES, as well as commitments with multilateral banks such as the IMF, World Bank, and IDB, is measured net of financial assets. The fiscal rule under Law 1473 of 2011 set a maximum threshold of 71% of GDP and an anchor of 55%, though it was suspended during the pandemic.

Historically, net debt fluctuated from a low of 33.2% of GDP in 2012 to a peak of 60.7% in 2020. From 2002 to 2012, it fell from 44.8% to 33.2% via asset liquidation and a focus on security. From 2012 to 2019, it rose moderately by 15% of GDP. The pandemic drove a sharp 12.3% increase in one year, breaking the rule and impacting risk ratings.

Post-pandemic, it dropped to 53.4% of GDP in 2023 with higher tax collection, but climbed to 59.3% in 2024 due to fiscal shortfalls. Now declining toward the anchor, three strategies are in place: reducing external debt from 41% in 2022 to the current 34.3%, targeting 30% to ease exchange pressure; exploring placements in euros, Swiss francs, and with Chinese and Middle Eastern banks for lower rates; and extending debt maturities after IMF repayments, relieving short-term pressures.

These orthodox measures aim to diversify funding sources and ensure sustainability, excluding non-financial debts like fuel deficits, health accumulations, and energy subsidies.

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