France's Education Ministry projects a loss of 1.7 million pupils in public and contracted private schools, colleges, and high schools by 2035, a 14.2% drop from 2025 levels. Minister Édouard Geffray describes it as a «seismic wave» requiring a rethink of long-term school provision. The forecasts rely on declining fertility assumptions.
The Education Ministry's statistical service released projections on Tuesday showing 1,676,800 fewer pupils by 2035, including 933,000 in primary education (-15.2%) and 743,800 in secondary (-13.2%). «These projections follow an already started decline that will become massive», Édouard Geffray told Le Parisien, noting the impact across the entire education system.
The figures are based on an intermediate fertility scenario reaching 1.5 children per woman by 2030. Primary enrollment will fall from 6,149,400 to 5,216,400, and secondary from 5,619,700 to 4,875,900. This follows a birth decline since 2010 and falling enrollments since 2016 in primary.
Territorial variations are stark: -29.3% in primary in Paris, +6.2% in secondary in Mayotte. Geffray anticipates adjustments like intercommunal groupings in rural areas and urban network reviews, with no school closures next year without mayoral approval.
Unions oppose job cuts. Snes-FSU's Sophie Vénétitay warns against «blindly following the demographic compass», while SNUipp-FSU's Aurélie Gagnier advocates reducing class sizes. 4,000 teaching posts will be cut for the 2026 school year; a meeting is set for April 21.