A new mathematical analysis by Robert G. Endres of Imperial College London suggests that the spontaneous emergence of life from nonliving matter on early Earth was far less likely than previously thought. Using information theory, the research highlights the immense improbability of assembling a simple protocell from basic chemicals. The findings underscore ongoing challenges in explaining life's origins through natural processes alone.
Robert G. Endres, a researcher at Imperial College London, has developed a mathematical framework to reassess one of science's fundamental questions: how life arose from nonliving material. Published on arXiv on July 24, 2025, the study titled 'The unreasonable likelihood of being: origin of life, terraforming, and AI' applies principles from information theory and algorithmic complexity to model the formation of a protocell—the simplest precursor to a living cell—under prebiotic conditions.
Endres compares the process to attempting to write a coherent article for a science website by randomly tossing letters onto a page. As molecular complexity increases, the probability of achieving the necessary organization plummets toward zero. The analysis indicates that random chemical reactions and natural processes alone may not suffice to explain life's appearance within the finite timeframe available on early Earth, given that systems naturally trend toward disorder.
While the research does not deem life's natural origin impossible, it argues that existing models likely overlook crucial elements. Endres emphasizes that pinpointing the physical principles enabling life's emergence from nonlife remains a major unsolved puzzle in biological physics. The study also touches on directed panspermia, the idea proposed by Francis Crick and Leslie Orgel that advanced extraterrestrials might have seeded life on Earth. Though logically feasible, Endres notes this hypothesis violates Occam's razor by complicating explanations unnecessarily.
Instead, the work quantifies the informational and organizational hurdles, suggesting a need for novel physical laws or mechanisms to bridge the gap. This mathematical approach advances a more rigorous understanding of how living systems could arise, deepening the mystery of existence without resolving it.