WMO warns of strong El Niño in second half of year

The World Meteorological Organization has announced a 90 percent chance of El Niño emerging in the second half of this year and affecting Kenya.

On Tuesday the World Meteorological Organization announced a 90 percent chance that El Niño will emerge in the second half of this year. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the world should prepare for a strong El Niño that could increase drought heavy rains and heatwaves. The 2023-2024 El Niño was among the five strongest ever recorded globally and contributed to high temperatures in 2024. In Kenya experts expect average to below-average rainfall in June July and August especially in western areas and the Rift Valley. At the same time above-normal temperatures are expected across the country. Climate scientist Dr Chris Kiptum said heavy rains are expected at the end of the year and could cause flooding in urban areas. Experts warn that impacts will also depend on the Indian Ocean Dipole and urge early preparations to reduce damage.

संबंधित लेख

Drought-stricken Andes landscape with forest fires and NOAA El Niño forecast map overlay, illustrating 90% probability warning.
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NOAA raises El Niño probability to 90% for September 2026

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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.

Scientists forecast an 80 percent likelihood that an El Niño will form by September, with most models pointing to a moderate event. Some simulations indicate the possibility of a much stronger episode. Global warming is expected to intensify the effects of any such occurrence.

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Ideam raised the probability of El Niño conditions to 82 percent for the May-June-July quarter, with strong or very strong intensity expected.

The South African Weather Service has updated its forecast to predict below-normal rainfall in the southwestern and southern coastal parts during winter until August. This drier outlook raises concerns for the winter wheat crop amid rising fuel and fertiliser prices linked to the Iran conflict. Eastern coastal areas may see above-normal rain, heightening flood risks.

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The Ministry of Mines and Energy presented a strategy with 50 actions to strengthen the energy system ahead of the El Niño phenomenon expected in the second half of 2026.

The Kenya Meteorological Department has urged residents in various parts of the country to prepare for moderate to heavy rains over the next five days. Rains are expected in Western Kenya, the Central Highlands, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, and the South-eastern Lowlands. Residents have been warned to watch for potential flooding.

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The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has issued an advisory warning of intensified rainfall from April 22 to 27 across coastal, northeastern and southeastern lowland regions.

 

 

 

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