WMO yaonya kuhusu El Niño yenye nguvu nusu ya pili ya mwaka

Shirika la Hali ya Hewa Duniani limetangaza uwezekano wa asilimia 90 wa El Niño kujitokeza nusu ya pili ya mwaka huu na kuathiri Kenya.

Jumanne Shirika la Hali ya Hewa Duniani lilitangaza kuwa kuna uwezekano wa asilimia 90 kwamba El Niño itajitokeza katika nusu ya pili ya mwaka huu. Katibu Mkuu wa shirika hilo Celeste Saulo alisema dunia inapaswa kujiandaa kwa El Niño yenye nguvu ambayo inaweza kuongeza ukame mvua kubwa na mawimbi ya joto.

El Niño ya 2023-2024 ilikuwa miongoni mwa tano zenye nguvu zaidi kuwahi kurekodiwa duniani na ilichangia viwango vya juu vya joto mwaka 2024. Nchini Kenya wataalamu wanatarajia mvua za wastani hadi chini ya wastani katika miezi ya Juni Julai na Agosti hasa katika maeneo ya magharibi na bonde la ufa.

Wakati huo huo joto la juu kuliko kawaida linatarajiwa kushuhudiwa kote nchini. Mwanasayansi wa hali ya hewa Dkt Chris Kiptum amesema mvua nyingi inatarajiwa mwishoni mwa mwaka na inaweza kusababisha mafuriko katika maeneo ya mijini.

Wataalamu wanaonya kuwa athari zitategemea pia hali ya Indian Ocean Dipole na wanahimiza maandalizi mapema ili kupunguza madhara.

Makala yanayohusiana

Drought-stricken Andes landscape with forest fires and NOAA El Niño forecast map overlay, illustrating 90% probability warning.
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NOAA raises El Niño probability to 90% for September 2026

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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.

Scientists forecast an 80 percent likelihood that an El Niño will form by September, with most models pointing to a moderate event. Some simulations indicate the possibility of a much stronger episode. Global warming is expected to intensify the effects of any such occurrence.

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Ideam raised the probability of El Niño conditions to 82 percent for the May-June-July quarter, with strong or very strong intensity expected.

The Ministry of Mines and Energy presented a strategy with 50 actions to strengthen the energy system ahead of the El Niño phenomenon expected in the second half of 2026.

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Kenya's meteorological authority forecasts ongoing rains throughout April, with flood risks in many areas. Rift Valley, Lake Victoria regions and nearby will see frequent heavy rains, accompanied by lightning.

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has issued an advisory warning of intensified rainfall from April 22 to 27 across coastal, northeastern and southeastern lowland regions.

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The Kenya Meteorological Department has urged Kenyans to brace for continued rains in several parts of the country from Friday, April 17 to Tuesday, April 22. Heavy rainfall is expected in the Rift Valley, Western and Lake Victoria basin regions, while other areas will see lighter showers. Residents have been warned to watch for potential flooding.

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Nairobi among regions to experience continued rainfall until May 25, says Kenya Met

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Minister warns of energy supply risks from El Niño

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Weather department forecasts rains to reduce from mid-May

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Pagasa raises El Niño alert level

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Kenya Met warns of heavy rains and thunderstorms in several regions

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Kenya meteorological department warns of heavy weekend rains

 

 

 

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