The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.
NOAA attributes the high probability to rising subsurface ocean temperature anomalies and recent westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific. The agency noted that occurrence and intensity will depend on the evolution of these anomalies during the Northern Hemisphere summer and a rise in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures.
Conditional intensity probabilities (given El Niño occurrence): weak (20%, +0.5°C to 1°C), moderate (30%, 1°C to 1.5°C), strong (25-30%), and very strong (nearly 15%, 2°C or more).
SAT meteorologist Leidy Rodríguez explained El Niño as additional warming in the equatorial Pacific with ocean-atmospheric coupling. In Colombia, the Regional Autonomous Corporation (CAR) warns companies and communities to prepare.
Energy generators, via Andeg president Alejandro Castañeda, highlight hydroelectric dependency, which drops to 62% in droughts, raising thermal generation (including coal and gas) to 55%. In April 2024, reservoirs hit 27% and thermal covered 55% (18% coal, 37% gas), nearly causing blackouts. Currently, with La Niña ending, hydroelectric meets 80-85% of demand amid rising imported gas prices from Middle East conflicts.
In Bogotá, Acueducto reports readiness: tripled Tibitoc plant capacity (4.5 to 10.5 m³/s), modernizing Wiesner (14 to 21 m³/s), and Chingaza reservoirs hold 120 million m³ (73 million more than April 2024), with stable consumption.
