The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% chance of El Niño in September 2026, persisting through the year's final quarter. It also raised the May-July forecast to 61% from 25% in March.
NOAA stated that rising subsurface temperature anomalies and recent westerly winds over the western Pacific Ocean increase the El Niño likelihood. "El Niño is probable due to the increase in subsurface temperature anomalies and recent westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific Ocean," the agency noted.
The probability will depend on how these wind anomalies evolve across the Pacific during the northern hemisphere summer. An rise in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures will determine the event's intensity.
Intensity probabilities include: weak (20%, +0.5°C to 1°C), moderate (30%, 1°C to 1.5°C), strong (25-30%), and very strong (15%, over 2°C).
In Colombia, the Regional Autonomous Corporation (CAR) warns companies and communities to prepare. Andeg president Alejandro Castañeda said hydroelectric generation meets 80% to 85% of current demand, turning to thermal sources like coal amid rising imported gas prices from Middle East conflicts.