Following earlier forecasts of dry southwestern winters, the South African Weather Service's latest outlook through September 2026 warns of a potential super El Niño by May, threatening summer droughts, while Western Cape dams sit at critically low 46% capacity.
In its Seasonal Climate Watch covering up to September 2026, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) confirms ongoing below-normal rainfall forecasts for southwestern and southern coastal regions through autumn and winter—consistent with prior outlooks—but highlights escalating concerns.
Western Cape dam levels are at 46% capacity, down from 57% last year and below national averages, reviving fears of a 'Day Zero' crisis. Eastern coastal areas, by contrast, expect above-normal winter rains, while dams supplying Gauteng from Lesotho remain full post-La Niña.
A major update: Global models, including the World Meteorological Organization, signal a rapid shift to El Niño conditions as early as May-July 2026, driven by warming equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures. Though not yet impacting the current dry winter (tied to Southern Ocean cyclones), a super El Niño could devastate summer rainfall areas like the maize belt if it strengthens.
"During winter, the southwestern parts of the country are mainly affected by mid-latitude cyclones (or lack thereof) which originate over the Southern Ocean," noted SAWS scientist Cobus Olivier.
This forecast builds on the series of SAWS seasonal updates tracking South Africa's variable climate patterns.
