Pagasa raises El Niño alert level

The state weather bureau Pagasa has raised its alert and warning system to El Niño alert level as the weather phenomenon is expected to prevail by the next quarter. Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said El Niño has a 79 percent chance of emerging in the June-July-August season and may persist until 2027.

At a press briefing, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said El Niño brings an increased possibility of drier-than-usual conditions, which can lead to negative impacts such as droughts and dry spells in some parts of the country.

While debunking claims of a projected 'Super El Niño,' Solis stressed that officials are not ruling out the possibility for it to gather strength by the latter half of the year.

The elevation to El Niño alert level aims to prepare for the phenomenon's potential effects, typically involving drier weather patterns.

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Drought-stricken Andes landscape with forest fires and NOAA El Niño forecast map overlay, illustrating 90% probability warning.
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NOAA raises El Niño probability to 90% for September 2026

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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.

A report from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center states that the rains marking early 2026 in Colombia will continue at least until April, driven by La Niña's shift to a neutral phase. Experts warn of precipitation 41.6% more intense than in March 2025, per Ideam. In the second half of the year, there is a 50-60% chance of El Niño returning, potentially decreasing rains and raising temperatures.

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The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration expects the dry season to start this week. PAGASA weather specialist Grace Castañeda said cloudy skies with isolated rains will continue for now.

The National Meteorological Service issued a yellow alert for rains on Monday, March 9, in the provinces of Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego. The warnings cover the coming hours in these southern areas of Argentina. Residents are advised to stay tuned to weather updates.

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The South African Weather Service has updated its forecast to predict below-normal rainfall in the southwestern and southern coastal parts during winter until August. This drier outlook raises concerns for the winter wheat crop amid rising fuel and fertiliser prices linked to the Iran conflict. Eastern coastal areas may see above-normal rain, heightening flood risks.

Building on earlier forecasts of heavy rains persisting through April, the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Ideam), led by Ghisliane Echeverry, announced the official start of Colombia's first rainy season of 2026, which is set to continue until mid-June. The announcement follows an atypical first quarter with above-normal rainfall across most departments, preventing the customary dry season from December to March.

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The National Meteorological Service has issued yellow alerts for rain and storms for Thursday, March 12, in multiple Argentine provinces. The warnings cover the coming hours in areas including Tierra del Fuego, Buenos Aires, Jujuy, Río Negro, Santiago del Estero, and Salta. Residents are urged to stay alert for updates.

 

 

 

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