El Niño conditions now present – PAGASA

El Niño conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific, with an 80 percent probability of developing into a full-blown event persisting until early 2027, the state weather bureau said.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration reported that El Niño conditions have emerged. “State agencies and the general public are advised to take appropriate preparedness and response measures to mitigate potential impacts, particularly in areas vulnerable to heavy rainfall and floods during southwest monsoon season and those areas prone to below-normal rainfall conditions,” the bureau said. El Niño typically raises the risk of dry spells and drought across much of the country. Above-normal rainfall may still occur over western sections during the southwest monsoon season, especially with tropical cyclone activity.

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Drought-stricken Andes landscape with forest fires and NOAA El Niño forecast map overlay, illustrating 90% probability warning.
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NOAA raises El Niño probability to 90% for September 2026

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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.

The state weather bureau Pagasa has raised its alert and warning system to El Niño alert level as the weather phenomenon is expected to prevail by the next quarter. Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said El Niño has a 79 percent chance of emerging in the June-July-August season and may persist until 2027.

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Scientists forecast an 80 percent likelihood that an El Niño will form by September, with most models pointing to a moderate event. Some simulations indicate the possibility of a much stronger episode. Global warming is expected to intensify the effects of any such occurrence.

The Ministry of Mines and Energy presented a strategy with 50 actions to strengthen the energy system ahead of the El Niño phenomenon expected in the second half of 2026.

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The low pressure area formerly known as Tropical Cyclone Caloy is forecast to weaken and dissipate over the Philippine Sea by Friday or Saturday without affecting the country.

Following Monday's conditions, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said the Intertropical Convergence Zone, easterlies, and localized thunderstorms will bring rains across the country on Tuesday.

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The southwest monsoon has slightly weakened but is still forecast to bring thunderstorms nationwide on Wednesday according to PAGASA.

 

 

 

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