필리핀 기상청(PAGASA)은 열대 태평양 지역에서 엘니뇨 현상이 나타나고 있으며, 2027년 초까지 지속되는 본격적인 엘니뇨 현상으로 발전할 확률이 80%에 달한다고 밝혔다.
필리핀 기상청은 엘니뇨 현상이 시작되었다고 보고했다. 기상청은 "관계 기관과 일반 대중은 특히 남서 몬순 기간 동안 폭우와 홍수에 취약한 지역, 그리고 강우량이 평년보다 적을 가능성이 있는 지역을 중심으로 잠재적 피해를 완화하기 위한 적절한 대비책과 대응 조치를 취해야 한다"고 당부했다. 엘니뇨는 일반적으로 전국 대부분 지역에서 건조기나 가뭄의 위험을 높인다. 다만 남서 몬순 기간 동안, 특히 열대 저기압 활동과 맞물려 서부 지역에는 평년보다 많은 비가 내릴 가능성도 여전히 존재한다.
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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.
The state weather bureau Pagasa has raised its alert and warning system to El Niño alert level as the weather phenomenon is expected to prevail by the next quarter. Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said El Niño has a 79 percent chance of emerging in the June-July-August season and may persist until 2027.
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Scientists forecast an 80 percent likelihood that an El Niño will form by September, with most models pointing to a moderate event. Some simulations indicate the possibility of a much stronger episode. Global warming is expected to intensify the effects of any such occurrence.
The Ministry of Mines and Energy presented a strategy with 50 actions to strengthen the energy system ahead of the El Niño phenomenon expected in the second half of 2026.
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The low pressure area formerly known as Tropical Cyclone Caloy is forecast to weaken and dissipate over the Philippine Sea by Friday or Saturday without affecting the country.
Following Monday's conditions, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said the Intertropical Convergence Zone, easterlies, and localized thunderstorms will bring rains across the country on Tuesday.
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The southwest monsoon has slightly weakened but is still forecast to bring thunderstorms nationwide on Wednesday according to PAGASA.