フィリピン大気地球物理天文局（PAGASA）は、熱帯太平洋においてエルニーニョ現象が発生しており、今後2027年初頭まで継続する本格的な事象に発展する可能性が80％であると発表した。
フィリピン大気地球物理天文局は、エルニーニョ現象が発生したことを報告した。同局は「関係省庁および一般市民は、特に南西モンスーンの季節に大雨や洪水の影響を受けやすい地域や、降水量が平年を下回る傾向がある地域において、潜在的な影響を軽減するために適切な備えと対応措置を講じるよう推奨する」と呼びかけている。エルニーニョ現象は通常、国内の広範囲で乾燥や干ばつのリスクを高める。一方で、南西モンスーンの季節には、特に熱帯低気圧の活動に伴い、西部地域などで平年を上回る降水量が見られる可能性もある。
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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.
The state weather bureau Pagasa has raised its alert and warning system to El Niño alert level as the weather phenomenon is expected to prevail by the next quarter. Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said El Niño has a 79 percent chance of emerging in the June-July-August season and may persist until 2027.
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Scientists forecast an 80 percent likelihood that an El Niño will form by September, with most models pointing to a moderate event. Some simulations indicate the possibility of a much stronger episode. Global warming is expected to intensify the effects of any such occurrence.
The Ministry of Mines and Energy presented a strategy with 50 actions to strengthen the energy system ahead of the El Niño phenomenon expected in the second half of 2026.
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The low pressure area formerly known as Tropical Cyclone Caloy is forecast to weaken and dissipate over the Philippine Sea by Friday or Saturday without affecting the country.
Following Monday's conditions, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said the Intertropical Convergence Zone, easterlies, and localized thunderstorms will bring rains across the country on Tuesday.
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The southwest monsoon has slightly weakened but is still forecast to bring thunderstorms nationwide on Wednesday according to PAGASA.