フィリピン大気地球物理天文局（Pagasa）は、次の四半期にエルニーニョ現象が優勢になると予想されるため、警戒・警告システムを「エルニーニョ警戒レベル」に引き上げました。気候監視予測部門のAna Liza Solis部長は、6月から8月にかけてエルニーニョが発生する確率は79％であり、2027年まで続く可能性があると述べています。
フィリピン大気地球物理天文局（Pagasa）の気候監視予測部門長であるAna Liza Solis氏は記者会見で、エルニーニョによって通常よりも乾燥した状況になる可能性が高まり、国内の一部地域で干ばつや乾燥期といった悪影響が生じる可能性があると語りました。
Solis氏は「スーパー・エルニーニョ」が予測されているという主張を否定しつつも、当局として年末までに勢力を強める可能性を排除してはいないと強調しました。
今回のエルニーニョ警戒レベルへの引き上げは、通常乾燥した気象パターンをもたらすこの現象の潜在的な影響に備えることを目的としています。
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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.
A report from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center states that the rains marking early 2026 in Colombia will continue at least until April, driven by La Niña's shift to a neutral phase. Experts warn of precipitation 41.6% more intense than in March 2025, per Ideam. In the second half of the year, there is a 50-60% chance of El Niño returning, potentially decreasing rains and raising temperatures.
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The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration expects the dry season to start this week. PAGASA weather specialist Grace Castañeda said cloudy skies with isolated rains will continue for now.
The National Meteorological Service issued a yellow alert for rains on Monday, March 9, in the provinces of Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego. The warnings cover the coming hours in these southern areas of Argentina. Residents are advised to stay tuned to weather updates.
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The South African Weather Service has updated its forecast to predict below-normal rainfall in the southwestern and southern coastal parts during winter until August. This drier outlook raises concerns for the winter wheat crop amid rising fuel and fertiliser prices linked to the Iran conflict. Eastern coastal areas may see above-normal rain, heightening flood risks.
Building on earlier forecasts of heavy rains persisting through April, the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Ideam), led by Ghisliane Echeverry, announced the official start of Colombia's first rainy season of 2026, which is set to continue until mid-June. The announcement follows an atypical first quarter with above-normal rainfall across most departments, preventing the customary dry season from December to March.
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The National Meteorological Service has issued yellow alerts for rain and storms for Thursday, March 12, in multiple Argentine provinces. The warnings cover the coming hours in areas including Tierra del Fuego, Buenos Aires, Jujuy, Río Negro, Santiago del Estero, and Salta. Residents are urged to stay alert for updates.