菲律宾国家气象局（Pagasa）已将其预警系统升级至厄尔尼诺警戒级别，预计该天气现象将在下一季度盛行。气候监测与预测部门负责人安娜·丽莎·索利斯（Ana Liza Solis）表示，厄尔尼诺现象在6月至8月期间出现的可能性为79%，并可能持续至2027年。
在新闻发布会上，菲律宾大气地球物理和天文服务管理局（Pagasa）气候监测与预测部门负责人安娜·丽莎·索利斯表示，厄尔尼诺现象带来了气温高于往常干燥条件的可能性，这可能对该国部分地区造成干旱和持续干旱等负面影响。虽然反驳了关于“超级厄尔尼诺”的预测，但索利斯强调，官员们并不排除其在下半年增强的可能性。将警戒级别提升至厄尔尼诺警戒旨在为该现象的潜在影响做好准备，这些影响通常包括更干燥的天气模式。
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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.
A report from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center states that the rains marking early 2026 in Colombia will continue at least until April, driven by La Niña's shift to a neutral phase. Experts warn of precipitation 41.6% more intense than in March 2025, per Ideam. In the second half of the year, there is a 50-60% chance of El Niño returning, potentially decreasing rains and raising temperatures.
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The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration expects the dry season to start this week. PAGASA weather specialist Grace Castañeda said cloudy skies with isolated rains will continue for now.
The National Meteorological Service issued a yellow alert for rains on Monday, March 9, in the provinces of Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego. The warnings cover the coming hours in these southern areas of Argentina. Residents are advised to stay tuned to weather updates.
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The South African Weather Service has updated its forecast to predict below-normal rainfall in the southwestern and southern coastal parts during winter until August. This drier outlook raises concerns for the winter wheat crop amid rising fuel and fertiliser prices linked to the Iran conflict. Eastern coastal areas may see above-normal rain, heightening flood risks.
Building on earlier forecasts of heavy rains persisting through April, the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Ideam), led by Ghisliane Echeverry, announced the official start of Colombia's first rainy season of 2026, which is set to continue until mid-June. The announcement follows an atypical first quarter with above-normal rainfall across most departments, preventing the customary dry season from December to March.
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The National Meteorological Service has issued yellow alerts for rain and storms for Thursday, March 12, in multiple Argentine provinces. The warnings cover the coming hours in areas including Tierra del Fuego, Buenos Aires, Jujuy, Río Negro, Santiago del Estero, and Salta. Residents are urged to stay alert for updates.