菲律宾国家气象局（Pagasa）已将其预警系统升级至厄尔尼诺警戒级别，预计该天气现象将在下一季度盛行。气候监测与预测部门负责人安娜·丽莎·索利斯（Ana Liza Solis）表示，厄尔尼诺现象在6月至8月期间出现的可能性为79%，并可能持续至2027年。
在新闻发布会上，菲律宾大气地球物理和天文服务管理局（Pagasa）气候监测与预测部门负责人安娜·丽莎·索利斯表示，厄尔尼诺现象带来了气温高于往常干燥条件的可能性，这可能对该国部分地区造成干旱和持续干旱等负面影响。虽然反驳了关于“超级厄尔尼诺”的预测，但索利斯强调，官员们并不排除其在下半年增强的可能性。将警戒级别提升至厄尔尼诺警戒旨在为该现象的潜在影响做好准备，这些影响通常包括更干燥的天气模式。
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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.
El Niño conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific, with an 80 percent probability of developing into a full-blown event persisting until early 2027, the state weather bureau said.
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Global weather agencies have declared that El Niño has started in the tropical Pacific. Models indicate a 63 per cent chance it will become a very strong or super El Niño.
The Hong Kong Observatory said the developing El Nino could intensify four to seven tropical cyclones into super typhoons this year. It also forecast temperatures in the city could reach 35 degrees Celsius on Friday.
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The low pressure area formerly known as Tropical Cyclone Caloy is forecast to weaken and dissipate over the Philippine Sea by Friday or Saturday without affecting the country.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration announced on Saturday that the southwest monsoon or habagat season has officially started.
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Following Monday's conditions, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said the Intertropical Convergence Zone, easterlies, and localized thunderstorms will bring rains across the country on Tuesday.