Pagasa raises El Niño alert level

The state weather bureau Pagasa has raised its alert and warning system to El Niño alert level as the weather phenomenon is expected to prevail by the next quarter. Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said El Niño has a 79 percent chance of emerging in the June-July-August season and may persist until 2027.

At a press briefing, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said El Niño brings an increased possibility of drier-than-usual conditions, which can lead to negative impacts such as droughts and dry spells in some parts of the country.

While debunking claims of a projected 'Super El Niño,' Solis stressed that officials are not ruling out the possibility for it to gather strength by the latter half of the year.

The elevation to El Niño alert level aims to prepare for the phenomenon's potential effects, typically involving drier weather patterns.

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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.

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