Pagasa raises El Niño alert level

The state weather bureau Pagasa has raised its alert and warning system to El Niño alert level as the weather phenomenon is expected to prevail by the next quarter. Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said El Niño has a 79 percent chance of emerging in the June-July-August season and may persist until 2027.

At a press briefing, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said El Niño brings an increased possibility of drier-than-usual conditions, which can lead to negative impacts such as droughts and dry spells in some parts of the country.

While debunking claims of a projected 'Super El Niño,' Solis stressed that officials are not ruling out the possibility for it to gather strength by the latter half of the year.

The elevation to El Niño alert level aims to prepare for the phenomenon's potential effects, typically involving drier weather patterns.

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Drought-stricken Andes landscape with forest fires and NOAA El Niño forecast map overlay, illustrating 90% probability warning.
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NOAA raises El Niño probability to 90% for September 2026

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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.

El Niño conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific, with an 80 percent probability of developing into a full-blown event persisting until early 2027, the state weather bureau said.

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Global weather agencies have declared that El Niño has started in the tropical Pacific. Models indicate a 63 per cent chance it will become a very strong or super El Niño.

The Hong Kong Observatory said the developing El Nino could intensify four to seven tropical cyclones into super typhoons this year. It also forecast temperatures in the city could reach 35 degrees Celsius on Friday.

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The low pressure area formerly known as Tropical Cyclone Caloy is forecast to weaken and dissipate over the Philippine Sea by Friday or Saturday without affecting the country.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration announced on Saturday that the southwest monsoon or habagat season has officially started.

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Following Monday's conditions, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said the Intertropical Convergence Zone, easterlies, and localized thunderstorms will bring rains across the country on Tuesday.

 

 

 

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