필리핀 기상청(Pagasa)은 다음 분기부터 엘니뇨 현상이 지속될 것으로 예상됨에 따라 경보 단계를 엘니뇨 경보 수준으로 격상했다. 기후 감시 및 예측 부서의 아나 리사 솔리스(Ana Liza Solis) 부장은 6월~8월 사이에 엘니뇨가 발생할 확률이 79%이며, 2027년까지 지속될 가능성이 있다고 밝혔다.
필리핀 기상청(Pagasa) 기후 감시 및 예측 부서의 아나 리사 솔리스 부장은 기자회견에서 엘니뇨로 인해 평소보다 건조한 날씨가 나타날 가능성이 커졌으며, 이로 인해 국가 일부 지역에 가뭄과 건조 현상 등 부정적인 영향이 발생할 수 있다고 경고했다.
솔리스 부장은 일각에서 제기된 '슈퍼 엘니뇨' 가능성에 대해서는 선을 그으면서도, 하반기에 엘니뇨 현상이 더욱 강해질 가능성을 배제하지는 않는다고 강조했다.
이번 엘니뇨 경보 단계 격상은 일반적으로 더 건조한 날씨 패턴을 동반하는 엘니뇨 현상의 잠재적 영향에 대비하기 위한 조치이다.
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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.
A report from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center states that the rains marking early 2026 in Colombia will continue at least until April, driven by La Niña's shift to a neutral phase. Experts warn of precipitation 41.6% more intense than in March 2025, per Ideam. In the second half of the year, there is a 50-60% chance of El Niño returning, potentially decreasing rains and raising temperatures.
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The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration expects the dry season to start this week. PAGASA weather specialist Grace Castañeda said cloudy skies with isolated rains will continue for now.
The National Meteorological Service issued a yellow alert for rains on Monday, March 9, in the provinces of Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego. The warnings cover the coming hours in these southern areas of Argentina. Residents are advised to stay tuned to weather updates.
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The South African Weather Service has updated its forecast to predict below-normal rainfall in the southwestern and southern coastal parts during winter until August. This drier outlook raises concerns for the winter wheat crop amid rising fuel and fertiliser prices linked to the Iran conflict. Eastern coastal areas may see above-normal rain, heightening flood risks.
Building on earlier forecasts of heavy rains persisting through April, the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Ideam), led by Ghisliane Echeverry, announced the official start of Colombia's first rainy season of 2026, which is set to continue until mid-June. The announcement follows an atypical first quarter with above-normal rainfall across most departments, preventing the customary dry season from December to March.
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The National Meteorological Service has issued yellow alerts for rain and storms for Thursday, March 12, in multiple Argentine provinces. The warnings cover the coming hours in areas including Tierra del Fuego, Buenos Aires, Jujuy, Río Negro, Santiago del Estero, and Salta. Residents are urged to stay alert for updates.