世界气象组织报告称，未来三个月出现弱拉尼娜影响天气和气候模式的概率为55%。尽管它对全球气温有暂时冷却作用，但许多地区仍预计将出现高于正常水平的温暖。这一评估源于2025年11月中旬观察到的边缘拉尼娜条件。
世界气象组织（WMO），联合国气象机构，指出截至2025年11月中旬，海洋和大气指标显示出边缘拉尼娜条件。对于2026年1月至3月和2月至4月期间，返回ENSO中性条件的概率预计将从约65%逐渐增加至75%。
拉尼娜涉及中东赤道太平洋海表面温度的周期性大规模冷却，伴随热带大气环流的变化，包括风、气压和降雨模式。尽管它对全球平均气温产生暂时冷却影响，但WMO指出，在人类诱发气候变化的更广泛背景下，许多地区很可能仍将保持高于正常温度。
厄尔尼诺事件的可能性很小，该事件通常产生相反效应。厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜的季节性预报是气候敏感部门如农业、能源、健康和交通的重要规划工具。这些自然发生的大规模气候现象发生在人为气候变化的持续背景下。
对于经常受此类事件影响的菲律宾，这一预报促使其为潜在的降雨和温度模式变化做好准备。
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The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) has activated yellow warnings for rain, snow, wind, and waves in seven provinces for this Saturday, January 3, 2026, while an Arctic air mass will arrive on Sunday, bringing snow at low altitudes and intense cold until Epiphany.
Researchers at the University of Texas at Austin have found that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) synchronizes extreme wet and dry conditions across continents. Their study, based on satellite data from 2002 to 2024, reveals how these climate patterns drive simultaneous water crises worldwide. The findings highlight a shift toward more frequent dry extremes since around 2012.
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A new study reveals that El Niño weather events contributed to famines across Europe between 1500 and 1800, triggering some and prolonging others. Researchers found strong associations in central Europe and broader price impacts continent-wide. Modern agriculture, however, mitigates such risks today.
A new report by climate scientists and financial experts cautions that the world has underestimated the pace of global warming, potentially leading to trillions in economic losses by 2050. Governments and businesses are urged to prepare for worst-case scenarios amid accelerating temperature rises. Recent data shows 2025 as the third-warmest year on record, pushing closer to breaching the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold sooner than anticipated.
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The National Meteorological Service is monitoring Cold Front No. 33, moving from northwest Mexico and set to intensify the 2025-2026 winter with sharp temperature drops and widespread rain. Severe frosts are expected in highland areas of the north and center, with sub-zero lows in several states. While official confirmation of -15°C across all areas is lacking, projections point to frigid conditions in regions like Durango and Chihuahua.
据PAGASA称，由于东风和被称为“amihan”的东北季风，菲律宾部分地区可能出现降雨。大马尼拉和CALABARZON预计多云伴小雨。Caraga和Davao地区将有阴天伴零星降雨和雷暴。
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Earth's oceans reached their highest heat levels on record in 2025, absorbing 23 zetta joules of excess energy. This milestone, confirmed by an international team of scientists, underscores the accelerating impact of climate change. The warming trend, building since the 1990s, fuels stronger storms and rising sea levels worldwide.