世界气象组织报告称，未来三个月出现弱拉尼娜影响天气和气候模式的概率为55%。尽管它对全球气温有暂时冷却作用，但许多地区仍预计将出现高于正常水平的温暖。这一评估源于2025年11月中旬观察到的边缘拉尼娜条件。
世界气象组织（WMO），联合国气象机构，指出截至2025年11月中旬，海洋和大气指标显示出边缘拉尼娜条件。对于2026年1月至3月和2月至4月期间，返回ENSO中性条件的概率预计将从约65%逐渐增加至75%。
拉尼娜涉及中东赤道太平洋海表面温度的周期性大规模冷却，伴随热带大气环流的变化，包括风、气压和降雨模式。尽管它对全球平均气温产生暂时冷却影响，但WMO指出，在人类诱发气候变化的更广泛背景下，许多地区很可能仍将保持高于正常温度。
厄尔尼诺事件的可能性很小，该事件通常产生相反效应。厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜的季节性预报是气候敏感部门如农业、能源、健康和交通的重要规划工具。这些自然发生的大规模气候现象发生在人为气候变化的持续背景下。
对于经常受此类事件影响的菲律宾，这一预报促使其为潜在的降雨和温度模式变化做好准备。
Researchers at the University of Texas at Austin have found that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) synchronizes extreme wet and dry conditions across continents. Their study, based on satellite data from 2002 to 2024, reveals how these climate patterns drive simultaneous water crises worldwide. The findings highlight a shift toward more frequent dry extremes since around 2012.
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A report from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center states that the rains marking early 2026 in Colombia will continue at least until April, driven by La Niña's shift to a neutral phase. Experts warn of precipitation 41.6% more intense than in March 2025, per Ideam. In the second half of the year, there is a 50-60% chance of El Niño returning, potentially decreasing rains and raising temperatures.
Researchers have found that shifting ocean temperature patterns, such as El Niño and La Niña, prevent droughts from synchronizing across the planet, affecting only 1.8% to 6.5% of Earth's land at once. This discovery, based on over a century of climate data, suggests a natural safeguard for global food supplies. The study highlights how these patterns create regional variations rather than widespread dry spells.
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The South African Weather Service has updated its forecast to predict below-normal rainfall in the southwestern and southern coastal parts during winter until August. This drier outlook raises concerns for the winter wheat crop amid rising fuel and fertiliser prices linked to the Iran conflict. Eastern coastal areas may see above-normal rain, heightening flood risks.