The World Meteorological Organization reports a 55 percent chance of a weak La Niña influencing weather and climate patterns over the next three months. Despite its temporary cooling effect on global temperatures, many regions are still expected to experience above-normal warmth. This assessment stems from borderline conditions observed in mid-November 2025.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations weather agency, indicates that oceanic and atmospheric indicators showed borderline La Niña conditions as of mid-November 2025. For the periods January to March and February to April 2026, the probability of returning to ENSO-neutral conditions is projected to increase gradually from about 65 percent to 75 percent.
La Niña involves the periodic large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, accompanied by shifts in tropical atmospheric circulation, including winds, pressure, and rainfall patterns. Although it exerts a temporary cooling influence on global average temperatures, the WMO notes that many regions will likely remain warmer than normal amid the broader backdrop of human-induced climate change.
There is minimal chance of an El Niño event, which typically produces opposing effects. Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña serve as vital planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, energy, health, and transport. These naturally occurring large-scale climate phenomena occur within the ongoing context of anthropogenic climate change.
For the Philippines, frequently impacted by such events, this forecast prompts preparations for potential alterations in rainfall and temperature patterns.
