A new El Niño phase has started in the tropical Pacific, with scientists warning that its influence on the UK remains difficult to forecast. The phenomenon is expected to strengthen and peak by the end of the year.
Several weather services have confirmed that El Niño conditions are now underway. Experts note that while the event typically brings wetter and windier conditions to the UK in late autumn and early winter, effects can vary widely due to other Atlantic influences.
At a media briefing on 10 June, Emily Black of the University of Reading said the direct effects on Europe and the UK are unclear because of the distance from the Pacific and strong regional factors. Nick Dunstone of the Met Office added that the variability in the storm track makes predictions challenging.
Past events show mixed outcomes. The 2015 super El Niño led to record rainfall and flooding in the UK, while the 2009-10 event contributed to a severe cold spell. Scientists stress the need for long-term planning as climate change amplifies risks.
