Scientists predict the current El Niño, which formed in June, will surpass all prior events in strength. Improved models and data support high confidence in record forecasts. This raises concerns for drought in southern Africa and global weather patterns.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts issued the warning during an online briefing. Dr Tim Stockdale, an El Niño expert there, stated: “We’ve never had a forecast of an El Niño that was so strong and so consistent across models.” He added that after 35 years in the field, the models indicate an extreme event expected to break records.
Enhanced data collection underpins the forecasts. NOAA deployed ocean buoys after the 1982-83 event, later joined by the Argo array of about 3,600 floats. These tools, plus satellites, have improved accuracy since the early 1980s.
Global sea surface temperatures reached new highs in June. The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported daily readings hit 20.86°C on 21 June, above the 2024 peak. This aligns with the onset of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific.