El Niño conditions now present – PAGASA

El Niño conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific, with an 80 percent probability of developing into a full-blown event persisting until early 2027, the state weather bureau said.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration reported that El Niño conditions have emerged. “State agencies and the general public are advised to take appropriate preparedness and response measures to mitigate potential impacts, particularly in areas vulnerable to heavy rainfall and floods during southwest monsoon season and those areas prone to below-normal rainfall conditions,” the bureau said. El Niño typically raises the risk of dry spells and drought across much of the country. Above-normal rainfall may still occur over western sections during the southwest monsoon season, especially with tropical cyclone activity.

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Global weather agencies have declared that El Niño has started in the tropical Pacific. Models indicate a 63 per cent chance it will become a very strong or super El Niño.

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Scientists forecast an 80 percent likelihood that an El Niño will form by September, with most models pointing to a moderate event. Some simulations indicate the possibility of a much stronger episode. Global warming is expected to intensify the effects of any such occurrence.

The World Meteorological Organization has announced a 90 percent chance of El Niño emerging in the second half of this year and affecting Kenya.

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The Ministry of Housing urged local authorities and service operators to prepare emergency measures ahead of the likely arrival of the El Niño phenomenon in the second half of the year.

 

 

 

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