Ideam raised the probability of El Niño conditions to 82 percent for the May-June-July quarter, with strong or very strong intensity expected.
The Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Ideam) updated its forecasts and raised the probability of El Niño conditions from 62 to 82 percent starting this month. Director general Ghisliane Echeverry Prieto ruled out moderate intensity and stated that the two current options are strong or very strong.
The Pacific, Andean and Caribbean regions will be the most affected, according to the joint report issued with the Ministry of Environment and the National Unit for Disaster Risk Management. Between May 1 and 14, 90 forest fire alerts were already recorded, more than half concentrated in the Caribbean, while several cities reported temperatures above historical averages.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center estimates that the phenomenon could reach strong or very strong category toward autumn in the northern hemisphere. Historically, a strong El Niño reduces agricultural GDP growth and raises food inflation in Colombia.
