WMO warns of strong El Niño in second half of year

The World Meteorological Organization has announced a 90 percent chance of El Niño emerging in the second half of this year and affecting Kenya.

On Tuesday the World Meteorological Organization announced a 90 percent chance that El Niño will emerge in the second half of this year. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the world should prepare for a strong El Niño that could increase drought heavy rains and heatwaves. The 2023-2024 El Niño was among the five strongest ever recorded globally and contributed to high temperatures in 2024. In Kenya experts expect average to below-average rainfall in June July and August especially in western areas and the Rift Valley. At the same time above-normal temperatures are expected across the country. Climate scientist Dr Chris Kiptum said heavy rains are expected at the end of the year and could cause flooding in urban areas. Experts warn that impacts will also depend on the Indian Ocean Dipole and urge early preparations to reduce damage.

Labaran da ke da alaƙa

Drought-stricken Andes landscape with forest fires and NOAA El Niño forecast map overlay, illustrating 90% probability warning.
Hoton da AI ya samar

NOAA raises El Niño probability to 90% for September 2026

An Ruwaito ta hanyar AI Hoton da AI ya samar

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.

Scientists forecast an 80 percent likelihood that an El Niño will form by September, with most models pointing to a moderate event. Some simulations indicate the possibility of a much stronger episode. Global warming is expected to intensify the effects of any such occurrence.

An Ruwaito ta hanyar AI

Ideam raised the probability of El Niño conditions to 82 percent for the May-June-July quarter, with strong or very strong intensity expected.

The Ministry of Mines and Energy presented a strategy with 50 actions to strengthen the energy system ahead of the El Niño phenomenon expected in the second half of 2026.

An Ruwaito ta hanyar AI

Kenya's meteorological authority forecasts ongoing rains throughout April, with flood risks in many areas. Rift Valley, Lake Victoria regions and nearby will see frequent heavy rains, accompanied by lightning.

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has issued an advisory warning of intensified rainfall from April 22 to 27 across coastal, northeastern and southeastern lowland regions.

An Ruwaito ta hanyar AI

The Kenya Meteorological Department has urged Kenyans to brace for continued rains in several parts of the country from Friday, April 17 to Tuesday, April 22. Heavy rainfall is expected in the Rift Valley, Western and Lake Victoria basin regions, while other areas will see lighter showers. Residents have been warned to watch for potential flooding.

 

 

 

Wannan shafin yana amfani da cookies

Muna amfani da cookies don nazari don inganta shafin mu. Karanta manufar sirri mu don ƙarin bayani.
Ƙi