El Niño conditions now present – PAGASA

El Niño conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific, with an 80 percent probability of developing into a full-blown event persisting until early 2027, the state weather bureau said.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration reported that El Niño conditions have emerged. “State agencies and the general public are advised to take appropriate preparedness and response measures to mitigate potential impacts, particularly in areas vulnerable to heavy rainfall and floods during southwest monsoon season and those areas prone to below-normal rainfall conditions,” the bureau said. El Niño typically raises the risk of dry spells and drought across much of the country. Above-normal rainfall may still occur over western sections during the southwest monsoon season, especially with tropical cyclone activity.

Makala yanayohusiana

Drought-stricken Andes landscape with forest fires and NOAA El Niño forecast map overlay, illustrating 90% probability warning.
Picha iliyoundwa na AI

NOAA raises El Niño probability to 90% for September 2026

Imeripotiwa na AI Picha iliyoundwa na AI

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.

The state weather bureau Pagasa has raised its alert and warning system to El Niño alert level as the weather phenomenon is expected to prevail by the next quarter. Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said El Niño has a 79 percent chance of emerging in the June-July-August season and may persist until 2027.

Imeripotiwa na AI

Scientists forecast an 80 percent likelihood that an El Niño will form by September, with most models pointing to a moderate event. Some simulations indicate the possibility of a much stronger episode. Global warming is expected to intensify the effects of any such occurrence.

The Ministry of Mines and Energy presented a strategy with 50 actions to strengthen the energy system ahead of the El Niño phenomenon expected in the second half of 2026.

Imeripotiwa na AI

The low pressure area formerly known as Tropical Cyclone Caloy is forecast to weaken and dissipate over the Philippine Sea by Friday or Saturday without affecting the country.

Following Monday's conditions, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said the Intertropical Convergence Zone, easterlies, and localized thunderstorms will bring rains across the country on Tuesday.

Imeripotiwa na AI

The southwest monsoon has slightly weakened but is still forecast to bring thunderstorms nationwide on Wednesday according to PAGASA.

Alhamisi, 4. Mwezi wa sita 2026, 22:55:29

WMO warns of strong El Niño in second half of year

Jumatano, 27. Mwezi wa tano 2026, 06:51:31

Minvivienda urges contingency plans over El Niño risk

Jumatatu, 18. Mwezi wa tano 2026, 23:07:52

Agriculture ministry allocates 146 billion pesos to mitigate El Niño

Jumapili, 17. Mwezi wa tano 2026, 00:52:23

Minister warns of energy supply risks from El Niño

Jumamosi, 16. Mwezi wa tano 2026, 20:29:07

El Niño probability rises to 82 percent in Colombia from May

Jumatano, 13. Mwezi wa tano 2026, 05:56:22

Alert rises for super niño with 61 percent chance in 2026

Jumatatu, 11. Mwezi wa tano 2026, 22:06:10

Pagasa monitors two LPAs unlikely to affect PH weather

Jumatatu, 4. Mwezi wa tano 2026, 23:16:41

SAWS updates: Super El Niño looms, Western Cape dams at 46% amid dry winter

Jumapili, 26. Mwezi wa nne 2026, 00:33:55

Prosecutor's Office issues circular to prepare Colombia for El Niño

Jumapili, 5. Mwezi wa nne 2026, 07:54:38

Pagasa expects tropical cyclone this April

 

 

 

Tovuti hii inatumia vidakuzi

Tunatumia vidakuzi kwa uchambuzi ili kuboresha tovuti yetu. Soma sera ya faragha yetu kwa maelezo zaidi.
Kataa