El Nino could turn 4-7 tropical cyclones this year into super typhoons

The Hong Kong Observatory said the developing El Nino could intensify four to seven tropical cyclones into super typhoons this year. It also forecast temperatures in the city could reach 35 degrees Celsius on Friday.

The Observatory issued the warning on Thursday. It noted that the current El Nino event is expected to last from autumn until early next year at the latest.

Choy Chun-wing, the Observatory’s acting assistant director, said the phenomenon would cause tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific to form further east. This shift raises the chance that the storms become super typhoons before reaching Hong Kong.

The forecaster also reported a temperature of 33.4 degrees Celsius at its Tsim Sha Tsui headquarters on Thursday. It predicted the reading could be broken on Friday with a high of 35 degrees Celsius, and possibly higher if showers arrive late in the day.

Under the combined effects of El Nino and global warming, Hong Kong has a high chance of recording one of its ten warmest years.

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Stormy scene at Hong Kong airport during Typhoon Noul with stranded passengers and minor damage.
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Typhoon Noul causes minor damage in Hong Kong

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Typhoon Noul made its third-closest approach to Hong Kong this century on Sunday, triggering a No 9 warning signal and stranding about 2,000 passengers at the airport.

Global weather agencies have declared that El Niño has started in the tropical Pacific. Models indicate a 63 per cent chance it will become a very strong or super El Niño.

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A developing super El Niño in the tropical Pacific has a 90 per cent chance of becoming the strongest in 150 years, according to new forecasts. It is expected to peak at 3.6°C above average sea surface temperatures.

The Hong Kong Observatory lifted its amber rainstorm warning on Saturday afternoon, but the city will continue to face unsettled weather including strong winds, swells and heavy showers until the middle of next week.

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The 2026 El Niño is projected to become the strongest since recordkeeping began. This development raises the prospect of widespread extreme weather and major economic consequences.

The low pressure area formerly known as Tropical Cyclone Caloy is forecast to weaken and dissipate over the Philippine Sea by Friday or Saturday without affecting the country.

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