AfD close behind Greens in poll ahead of state election

Twelve days before the state election in Baden-Württemberg, an Insa poll shows the Greens at 22 percent just ahead of the AfD at 20 percent, with the CDU leading at 28 percent. In a campaign debate, the top candidates presented their plans with a touch of humor. The parties agreed on reducing bureaucracy and strengthening the economy.

The state election in Baden-Württemberg is set for March 8, 2026. A recent representative Insa poll commissioned by the „Bild“ newspaper shows the CDU remaining the strongest force with 28 percent of the vote. The Greens reach 22 percent, narrowing their gap to the CDU from eight percentage points at the end of January (poll for „Nius“) to now six percentage points. In October 2025, the gap was still 14 percentage points (poll for „Schwäbische Zeitung“).

The AfD is at 20 percent, just behind the Greens, making the race for second place exciting. The SPD scores 10 percent, the Left 7 percent. The FDP achieves 6 percent and would thus enter the state parliament again. A continuation of the Green-Black coalition is considered likely.

At a podium organized by the „Reutlinger General-Anzeiger“ in Reutlingen's city hall, the top candidates Cem Özdemir (Greens), Manuel Hagel (CDU), Andreas Stoch (SPD), Hans-Ulrich Rülke (FDP), and Markus Frohnmaier (AfD) appeared. They described what they would do first after an election victory. Hagel said: „I would first invite Winfried Kretschmann to breakfast and hand over.“ Özdemir added: „I would first call Hagel and then Stoch and Rülke. And say that we also need the opposition.“

All candidates emphasized the need to reduce bureaucracy and strengthen Baden-Württemberg as a business location. They largely repeated their known positions.

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Realistic illustration of a tied Greens-CDU poll at 28% each with 32% undecided, ahead of Baden-Württemberg state election.
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Greens and CDU tied in poll ahead of Baden-Württemberg state election

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