Israel-Iran conflict drives up fuel costs in Ethiopia

The conflict between Israel and Iran affects Ethiopia through global markets, currencies, and supply chains. With Ethiopia importing all its fuel, rising oil prices strain dollar reserves and household budgets. Everyday costs for transport and food are climbing as a result.

Rising tensions between Israel and Iran are pushing up fuel prices in Ethiopia, which imports all its petroleum. This leads to higher transport costs, including for taxis, farm produce to markets, and air travel. Long queues at fuel stations result in lost time and income for drivers and traders. Fertilizer costs are climbing, prompting farmers to cut back, which will reduce crop yields and raise food prices later. Remittances from Ethiopians in the Middle East face risks as conflict disrupts jobs and movement. These pressures come amid Ethiopia's debt restructuring efforts, foreign exchange shortages, and fiscal strains. While oil exporters and traders may gain from volatility, most Ethiopians face higher costs with stagnant incomes, forcing household adjustments.

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Dramatic illustration of fiery oil tanker attack in Strait of Hormuz driving Brent crude prices over $100, with naval response, reserve releases, and India inflation impacts.
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Konflik Asia Barat dorong harga minyak melewati $100 per barel

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Harga minyak mentah Brent telah melampaui $100 per barel di tengah serangan Iran terhadap kapal komersial dan gangguan di Selat Hormuz. Badan Energi Internasional dan Amerika Serikat sedang melepaskan cadangan minyak untuk mengatasi kekhawatiran pasokan. Di India, krisis ini memicu risiko inflasi, biaya input pertanian yang lebih tinggi, serta gangguan perdagangan.

South Africa’s Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago has warned that the war in the Middle East will lead to higher fuel and food prices due to rising oil and fertiliser costs. He made the comments while attending the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington DC. The impacts are expected to filter through the economy later this year.

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Ethiopia's Ministry of Trade and Regional Integration has raised fuel prices effective April 1, 2026, with white diesel increasing by 16.6% to 163.09 birr per liter. The move comes as the fuel subsidy burden reaches nearly 272 billion birr. Officials cite global oil market disruptions from Middle East conflicts.

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Ethiopia's birr has depreciated sharply against the US dollar, driving up fertilizer and fuel prices. This threatens gains from a targeted 7 million metric tons wheat harvest in the 2026/27 season. The currency weakened from 75 birr to 155 birr per dollar since July 2024, a 107 percent loss in value by February 2026.

Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe says evolving tensions in the Middle East are negatively impacting global oil prices. Oil prices are expected to rise sharply next month due to the regional conflict. He made these remarks in his keynote address at the 5th annual Southern Africa Oil and Gas Conference in Cape Town.

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The price of Brent Crude Oil has risen to nearly 84 dollars per barrel amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This surge marks the highest level since July 2024 and raises concerns about potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warn that the escalation could compound global inflation risks.

 

 

 

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