Trade tariffs and rail woes test South Africa's mining resilience

The African Mining Indaba 2026 began in Cape Town on 9 February, highlighting challenges in South Africa's mining industry amid US tariffs and logistics issues. The Minerals Council South Africa launched its 2025 Facts and Figures report, revealing profit gains but persistent hurdles in electricity, rail, and exploration. Industry leaders expressed cautious optimism for stabilisation in 2026.

The African Mining Indaba 2026 opened in Cape Town on Monday, 9 February, drawing attention to the state of South Africa's mining sector. At the event, the Minerals Council South Africa released its 2025 Facts and Figures report, providing key insights into the industry's performance.

Mining remains a cornerstone of the economy, with gold contributing nearly 20% of total sales earnings despite making up only 10.5% of production volume. Profits rose by R21.8 billion in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the previous year, driven by coal, gold, and iron ore. The sector added 2,000 jobs by the third quarter of 2025, supporting nearly 900,000 direct jobs and the livelihoods of 3.6 million South Africans, according to Mzila Mthenjane, CEO of the Minerals Council.

'Mining is a powerful multiplier. Growing mining grows the economy and jobs,' Mthenjane stated.

However, challenges persist. Electricity costs pose a major issue, with Mthenjane calling for a holistic approach and expansion of the grid by 14,000 km to enable renewable energy projects. Rail services, managed by Transnet, continue to underperform, falling short of targets and far from the 226 million tonnes railed in 2017. 'While the improvement in rail services is encouraging, Transnet is simply not meeting its own targets... however, it could reach its 250 million tonnes by 2030 target with private sector participation,' Mthenjane noted.

Exploration spending dropped to R781 million in 2024 from a peak of R6.2 billion in 2006, raising concerns. 'The lifeblood of mining is exploration. Without it the mining sector has no future... This is deeply troubling for our sector and it needs urgent attention,' Mthenjane said.

Export earnings dipped 2% to R498.1 billion, with base metals suffering a 20% decline to R165.1 billion, partly due to US tariffs under the Trump administration. Looking to 2026, Bongani Motsa, acting chief economist at the Minerals Council, highlighted constraints from high power tariffs, poor logistics, and rising labour costs. 'Execution on logistics recovery, energy reliability and affordability as well as reduced permitting times... will determine whether 2026 shifts from stabilisation to sustained growth.'

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South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presents the 2026 budget, highlighting debt stabilisation, social grants, and infrastructure investment.
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South Africa unveils 2026 budget focusing on debt stabilisation

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Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presented the 2026 National Budget on 25 February 2026, announcing debt stabilisation at 78.9% of GDP and the withdrawal of proposed tax increases. The budget allocates R292.8 billion for social grants with increases for recipients and commits R1.07 trillion to infrastructure over the medium term. Reforms aim to enhance economic growth and public service efficiency amid a projected 1.6% growth for 2026.

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Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is set to deliver South Africa's 2026 Budget speech on February 25, amid positive economic signals including a credit rating upgrade and rising commodity prices. These factors are expected to support efforts to cap the country's debt at 77.9% of GDP and advance fiscal consolidation. Economists anticipate a focus on stabilizing debt and outlining a path to lower ratios in the medium and long term.

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