Bitcoin's price has defended the $100,000 level following significant ETF outflows and consecutive dips below that mark on November 4 and 5, 2025. On-chain data indicates fading demand and long-term holder selling, with recovery hinging on positive ETF flows and reclaiming the $112,500 short-term holder cost basis. Markets showed modest gains on November 7, with bitcoin reaching $103,289.
Bitcoin traded at $101,328 on November 7, 2025, after erasing a 2.3% recovery that briefly pushed it to $103,885 the previous day. The cryptocurrency experienced two consecutive dips below $100,000 on November 4 and 5, confirming on-chain signals of weakening demand momentum and long-term holders selling into weakness. According to Glassnode's November 5 report, a sustainable climb requires two reversals: US spot Bitcoin ETF flows turning net positive after two weeks of daily outflows ranging from $150 million to $700 million, totaling $566 million, and the price reclaiming the short-term holders' cost basis at $112,500 as support.
Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to hold above $112,500, the average acquisition price for coins held less than 155 days, resulting in an 11% discount that invites further downside. At $100,000, 71% of the circulating supply remains in profit, near the lower bound of the typical 70% to 90% equilibrium range during mid-cycle slowdowns. The Relative Unrealized Loss stands at 3.1%, below the 5% panic threshold seen in prior bear markets.
Long-term holders have shed approximately 300,000 BTC since July 2025, reducing supply from 14.7 million to 14.4 million, with total spending of 2.4 million BTC—equivalent to 12% of circulating supply excluding maturations—adding sell-side pressure. Institutional demand cooled, with ETF outflows contrasting earlier inflows, and spot market Cumulative Volume Delta Bias turning negative at -822 BTC on Binance and -917 BTC aggregate.
By later on November 7, bitcoin climbed to $103,289, up 2% in 24 hours after dipping to $99,000 earlier, amid a short-covering rally. Altcoins like ether at $3,432 (up 4-5%), XRP at $2.32, and solana at $162 also gained, with dogecoin up 12% to $0.179 and cardano up 9% to $0.58. Economic data from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, dropping to 50.3 from 53.6, suggested potential pressure for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. 'Consumers perceive pressure on their personal finances from multiple directions,' said survey director Joanne Hsu, noting anticipated labor market weakening.
Without the required flips in ETF flows and price levels, bitcoin risks sliding toward the $88,500 active investors' realized price, marking deeper corrections.
