Chinese analysts are studying US and Israeli decapitation strikes on Iran's leadership, contrasting them with a prior US operation in Venezuela, to draw lessons for Taiwan. They argue Beijing would not overestimate such strikes, viewing them as part of a broader amphibious landing.
South China Morning Post reports that Chinese experts attribute Iran's military resilience to its power structure, succession mechanisms, and geography, despite US and Israeli decapitation strikes eliminating supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Mohammad Pakpour, army chief of staff Abdolrahim Mousavi, defence minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, and national security chief Ali Larijani in an Israeli air strike on Tuesday. They state the United States is unlikely to achieve regime change in Iran without ground forces, a lesson Beijing would consider for any Taiwan operation. One analyst says Beijing would not overestimate decapitation strikes on Taiwan, seeing them as just part of an amphibious landing. Unlike the US's earlier Venezuela operation, which led to capitulation, Iranian forces have retaliated with drone and missile attacks on Israeli and US bases in the Middle East and other targets. Iran vows retaliation for Larijani's death. The duration of US-Israel strikes is debated, with US President Donald Trump sending mixed signals. Keywords mention Nanjing University among others, though experts' affiliations are unspecified.
