中国专家评估伊朗委内瑞拉斩首行动对台湾的启示

中国分析人士正在研究美国和以色列对伊朗的领导层斩首行动,以及此前美国在委内瑞拉的类似行动,并从中汲取针对台湾的经验教训。他们认为此类打击对中国而言仅是两栖登陆行动的一部分,不会高估其影响。

据南华早报报道,中国专家认为,尽管美国和以色列通过斩首行动消灭了伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊、伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官穆罕默德·帕克普尔、陆军参谋长阿卜杜勒拉希姆·穆萨维、国防部长阿齐兹·纳西尔扎德,以及周二以色列空袭击杀的国家安全负责人阿里·拉里贾尼,但伊朗的权力结构、继任机制和地理条件使其军事保持韧性。专家指出,美国若无地面部队部署,难以实现伊朗政权更迭,这一经验适用于北京对台湾的任何行动。文章强调,北京不会高估对台湾斩首打击的影响,而视其为两栖登陆行动的一部分。与之对比,美国此前在委内瑞拉的斩首行动导致后者屈从华盛顿,但伊朗军队持续反击,向中东以色列和美军基地及其他目标发射无人机和导弹。伊朗誓言报复拉里贾尼之死。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普发出混合信号,美以空袭持续时间引发激烈辩论。关键词包括南京大学、中东、霍尔木兹海峡等,但文章未具体指明专家机构。

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