SportsLine's advanced computer model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is backing the Buffalo Bills to cover as 9.5-point favorites against the Miami Dolphins in Week 10. The Bills, with the NFL's top-ranked offense averaging 385.5 yards per game, have dominated recent meetings, winning their last seven against Miami. The model projects a 35-23 victory for Buffalo in 60% of simulations.
Betting Preview
The NFL Week 10 matchup features the Bills (6-2) visiting the Dolphins (2-7) on Sunday, November 9, at 1 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium, airing on CBS and streaming on Paramount+. Buffalo is favored by 9.5 points with a total of 50 points, according to consensus odds. The Bills recently defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 28-21, where Josh Allen completed 23 of 26 passes for 273 yards and one touchdown, plus two rushing scores. James Cook added 114 rushing yards on 27 carries and is cleared to play despite an ankle issue.
Miami is struggling, losing four of their last five games, including a 28-6 defeat to the Baltimore Ravens on October 30. The Dolphins parted ways with general manager Chris Grier after the loss and have scored just six points in two of their last three games. Tua Tagovailoa performs better at home, but the team's offense ranks low recently.
Model Insights
The model, up over $7,000 on top-rated picks since inception and on a 47-29 run since 2024, has Buffalo covering in 60% of simulations and winning outright in 73%. It projects 36-22 on average, with the Over hitting in 63% of cases. Buffalo leads the NFL in rushing at 161.5 yards per game and total offense.
Other Week 10 highlights include the Seahawks (-6.5) covering versus the Cardinals in 56% of simulations, after Sam Darnold's 330-yard, four-touchdown performance last week. Seattle has won eight straight against Arizona. The model also favors Under 49.5 points in 49ers vs. Rams, projecting 45 combined points in 63% of simulations, following their October 2 overtime game totaling 49 points.