Whether Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will dissolve the House of Representatives for a snap election to secure long-term rule is set to be a major political focus in 2026. At a New Year press conference, she avoided a direct response, emphasizing the need for people to feel the effects of measures against price rises and other economic policies. Dissolution is likely after the passage of the fiscal 2026 budget in late March.
The Takaichi Cabinet has sustained approval ratings above 70% since its October launch, according to Yomiuri Shimbun surveys. Against this backdrop, a senior Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker stated, “We would not see a drop in seats [through a snap election],” fueling hopes among some LDP members for dissolution during the ordinary Diet session, which ends on June 21.
Takaichi seems to be weighing dissolution while consulting those around her. A voter mandate in an election would strengthen her leadership and enable long-term governance. The earliest speculated date is immediately after the budget proposal's passage, potentially in early April, minimizing public disruption and allowing campaigning on lower house seat reduction bills.
Alternatively, dissolution could occur at the ordinary session's end if the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan submits a no-confidence motion, providing a pretext. However, caution prevails within the government and ruling parties: the high ratings stem from policy expectations, so shifting focus to politics prematurely is unwise.
If no dissolution happens during the ordinary session, the autumn extraordinary Diet session offers the next chance. Takaichi would then compile a growth strategy for her advocated “strong economy” this summer and reshuffle the Cabinet to bolster support ahead of a snap election. Lower house lawmakers' terms expire in October 2028.
One of her aides remarked, “There is no need [for Takaichi] to feel pressured, but she should carefully gauge the timing [of the dissolution].” She is likely to proceed cautiously, also considering expansion of the ruling coalition.
The decision on dissolution will shape the fate of the Takaichi administration.
