ビットコインの価格は2026年2月上旬に6万ドルを記録した後、約6万7000ドル～7万ドルの水準まで回復したが、アナリストらは潜在的なブルトラップと継続する弱気市場を警告している。オンチェーンデータではクジラが小売需要に対して売却しており、企業ビットコイン保有の77%が含み損状態にある。AIモデルは底入れの可能性を示唆しているが、さらなる下落も依然として可能だ。
2026年初頭のビットコインの価格動向は変動が激しく、2025年10月の史上最高値12万6198ドルから46.5%～52%下落し、2月上旬には6万ドルの安値をつけた。この暗号資産は弱気市場領域に入り、先週のイスラエル、米国、イラン間の直接的な軍事衝突を含む地政学的緊張により悪化した。その後のラリーにもかかわらず、3月4～5日の月次高値7万4100ドルから下落し、最近のレポートでは6万7515ドル～7万ドルの範囲で取引されており、過去3週間で純価格変動はほぼゼロだ。
XユーザーらはWilly Woo氏の分析を議論し、ビットコインの価格回復を弱気市場の中間段階でのブルトラップと位置づけ、オンチェーンデータでクジラとOGホルダーが小売需要に対して売却している。センチメントは4万～5万ドルへのさらなる下落予測の弱気から、反転前の最大痛手として蓄積を促す懐疑論まで幅広い。
I find it useful to frame BTC bear markets in 3 phases:
— Willy Woo (@willywoo) 18 Faburairu, 2026
Phase 1 - The start, where BTC liquidity has already broken down (this happened Q3 2025) and price begins to follow downwards. BTC is a small asset so it's hyper sensitive to liquidity. Because of this, it tends to lead…
$BTC
— Ardi (@ArdiNSC) Pebrero 23, 2026
Today's dump pushed the Whale vs Retail Delta to its most negative reading since October when price was at $114K.
Institutions are selling at the same intensity now as they were near the all time high. Let that sink in.
Retail-based traders are on the other side of every… pic.twitter.com/fegfob5sQ4
💯
— Willy Woo (@willywoo) 26 Faburairu, 2026
BTC bear market is from real BTC sold in vast quantities by OGs greater than the capital coming in.
Thats clearly visible on the blockchain.
We are now in the area that this move will finish.
— Sykodelic 🔪 (@Sykodelic_) 3 Faburairu, 2026
And this section below the 74k lows will provide the springboard for the next macro leg higher.
Bitcoin is only down 40% and its 1W RSI has reached levels that previously took 80% moves to reach.
I am convinced based on all my… https://t.co/snqfEmxyBN pic.twitter.com/onkngJ7iO9
btc at $70k after peaking at $126k is a 44% drawdown. historically btc corrects 77-84% from cycle highs, which would put a real bottom around $25k-$37k
— FinRiff (@FinRiff) 8 Faburairu, 2026
the 1064 day cycle pattern nailed the last two bottoms within weeks. if it holds again, october 2026 is the window not now
AIによるレポート AIによって生成された画像
Bitcoin's price rebounded modestly to around $70,000 on February 8 after a sharp drop to $60,000 earlier in the week, prompting crypto advocates to downplay the volatility as temporary. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong emphasized long-term bullishness, while skeptics like Peter Schiff celebrated the downturn. Institutional interest persists despite extreme fear in market sentiment.
Bitcoin has declined about 40% from its October peak of $126,000, entering technical bear market territory amid heavy selling pressure. The cryptocurrency rebounded slightly to around $79,000 on February 2, 2026, but remains down over 10% for the week following $2.2 billion in liquidations. Analysts point to historical support levels near $58,000 as a potential bottom.
AIによるレポート
On February 11, 2026, Bitcoin dropped below $66,000 for the third consecutive session, reversing a recent rally amid stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data that diminished hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, XRP, and Dogecoin also fell, signaling waning investor interest in the sector. While some on-chain indicators show accumulation by larger holders, analysts warn of potential further downside.
Analysts at Ned Davis Research predict that bitcoin might fall as low as $31,000 if the current bear market turns into a full crypto winter, based on historical patterns. The cryptocurrency has already declined 44% from its October peak and was trading around $69,180 on Friday. While past winters have seen average drops of 84%, experts note that increasing institutional involvement could moderate future declines.
AIによるレポート
Bitcoin plunged below $80,000 on January 31, 2026, as a weekend crypto market crash erased over $220 billion in value, driven by geopolitical tensions and massive liquidations. Ethereum and XRP led losses, with prices falling sharply amid thin liquidity and reports of Israeli strikes in Gaza and an explosion at Iran's Bandar Abbas port. Traders attribute the downturn to a combination of global risks, U.S. political uncertainty, and forced selling in derivatives markets.
Bitcoin surged above $68,000 on March 2, 2026, as cryptocurrency markets rebounded amid a muted global reaction to escalating tensions in the Middle East. The rally followed strong U.S. manufacturing data, with the ISM PMI rising to 52.4 in February, signaling economic expansion. Ether and other major coins also gained, adding over $100 billion to the total market capitalization in under an hour.
AIによるレポート
Bitcoin has encountered strong rejection near the $72,000 resistance level, maintaining its position within a broader trading range and signaling weakened short-term momentum. The loss of key support levels, including the Point of Control, heightens the chances of a decline toward the $60,000 range low. Traders are monitoring whether the range support will hold amid bearish technical indicators.