O preço do Bitcoin recuperou para cerca de $67.000-$70.000 após atingir $60.000 no início de fevereiro de 2026, mas analistas alertam para uma possível armadilha de alta e mercado baixista em curso. Dados on-chain mostram baleias vendendo contra a demanda de varejo, enquanto 77% das participações corporativas em Bitcoin estão no vermelho. Modelos de IA sugerem que o fundo pode estar formado, embora quedas adicionais permaneçam possíveis.
A ação de preço do Bitcoin no início de 2026 tem sido volátil, caindo 46,5% a 52% desde sua máxima histórica de outubro de 2025 de $126.198 para uma mínima de $60.000 no início de fevereiro. A criptomoeda entrou em território de mercado baixista, agravado por tensões geopolíticas, incluindo conflito militar direto entre Israel, EUA e Irã na semana passada. Apesar de um rali subsequente para um pico mensal de $74.100 em 4-5 de março, o Bitcoin caiu abaixo de $67.000 desde então, negociando em torno de $67.515 a $70.000 conforme relatórios recentes, com uma mudança líquida de preço próxima de zero nas últimas três semanas. On-chain analyst Willy Woo described the current recovery as a “bull trap” in an X post on Saturday, warning it could mislead investors and last through the end of April. He noted that Bitcoin typically moves sideways after sharp drops before testing resistance, but investor flows since mid-February, while in “consistent recovery,” are not strong enough to confirm a bottom. The current price level is likely not the cycle low, according to Woo. Similarly, Santiment reported that whales—wallets holding over 100 BTC—sold approximately 66% of their recent accumulations as prices hit $74,000, a pattern that historically precedes further weakness. In contrast, retail investors with less than 0.01 BTC have been adding positions below $70,000. “When retail buys while whales sell, it typically signals that the correction is not yet over,” Santiment stated. Corporate treasuries are under pressure, with crypto analyst Charles Edwards noting that “77% of Bitcoin Treasury Companies are underwater on their Bitcoin buys,” last seen in May 2022 amid the TerraUSD collapse. MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, holds 720,737 BTC acquired at an average of $75,985 per coin for nearly $54.77 billion, now facing billions in unrealized losses as prices trade below that level. The company's stock has declined for eight straight months, losing over 70% of its value since November 2024. Glassnode data indicates 43% of Bitcoin's supply is held at an unrealized loss, likely capping recoveries as holders sell near cost basis. Other analysts share the bearish outlook: Benjamin Cowen called 2026 a “bear market year,” and CryptoQuant affirmed Bitcoin “is still in a bear market despite the recent rally.” Queries to AI models Gemini and ChatGPT yielded mixed views on whether the bottom is in. ChatGPT estimated a 45% chance that the February low was the final capitulation, potentially leading to surges toward $90,000, $100,000, and a new all-time high of $180,000-$220,000 this year, but a 20% chance of further drops to $48,000-$52,000. Gemini agreed on oversold conditions akin to 2022 or the FTX collapse, but highlighted risks from macroeconomic factors like inflation, geopolitical tensions, and rotation out of speculative assets.
