In a mid-October 2025 meeting in Caracas, Cuban advisers told Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro he could not count on military support from Havana amid the growing US military presence near Venezuelan shores. Cuba will limit its backing to political support, citing risks to its own security. The refusal surprised Maduro's inner circle, which expected firmer alliance from the historic partner.
The meeting between Maduro and the Cuban advisers took place on October 12, 2025, according to the weekly Political Risk Report by Caracas Consulting, accessed by El Toque. Sources close to the Venezuelan government revealed that Maduro sought military or logistical assistance from Cuba amid tensions with the United States. However, the Cubans were categorical: they will provide no military aid, as it would jeopardize the island's own security.
The advisers urged Maduro to 'resist the U.S. escalation' and buy time by mobilizing his few remaining international allies. They also cooled the idea of Maduro settling long-term in Cuba if his regime collapses, deeming it 'inconvenient' for Havana. Instead, they recommended an international media offensive, seeking and funding intellectuals and public figures willing to reject potential US military action.
This stance aligns with official Cuban statements. In a September 2025 interview with journalist Mehdi Hasan, Cuban Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Carlos Fernández de Cossío dismissed any armed intervention: 'We are not going to go to war with the United States,' he stated, limiting support to political backing in the event of an attack on Venezuela.
The report notes that Cuban intelligence services have revised their assessment: they no longer view Washington's actions as mere 'bluffing' but as preparations for operations targeting senior regime officials. The United States has alerted several Caribbean nations to block transfers of Venezuelan gold and resources under threat of sanctions.
In response, Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López ordered the armed forces to prepare to defend the country through 'nonconventional' means, including sabotage and guerrilla warfare tactics. Analysts interpret this as an admission of weakness in protecting strategic infrastructure like airports and ports.
Additional reports highlight contradictions in Maduro's strategy. El País published on October 12 that Chavismo is not considering negotiating its exit from power and prefers to resist US pressure. However, El Nuevo Herald reported on October 16 that Maduro twice asked the Trump administration to negotiate his withdrawal, with rejected proposals that excluded the opposition and María Corina Machado. The New York Times, on October 10, mentioned offers of Venezuelan oil and resources in exchange for remaining in power. The Venezuelan government denies any negotiations, and no public references to the meeting with Cubans have been found.