Ideam declares Colombia's first 2026 rainy season underway until mid-June

Building on earlier forecasts of heavy rains persisting through April, the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Ideam), led by Ghisliane Echeverry, announced the official start of Colombia's first rainy season of 2026, which is set to continue until mid-June. The announcement follows an atypical first quarter with above-normal rainfall across most departments, preventing the customary dry season from December to March.

Ideam explained that elevated rainfall in the first quarter suppressed the typical dry period, with February and March recording significantly higher-than-normal accumulations, including records in some areas that prompted flood and landslide alerts. 'The accumulations recorded during February and March continue to show values above the climatological averages,' the institute stated.

For the remainder of March, above-normal precipitation is expected in inter-Andean valleys, llanero and Amazon piedmonts, as well as La Guajira, Córdoba, Sucre, Bolívar, and Magdalena. Very heavy showers are forecast for Boyacá, Cundinamarca, Santander, Norte de Santander, Meta, Vichada, Arauca, and parts of La Guajira, while normal levels are anticipated in southern Pacific and Amazon regions.

From April onward, rains are projected to ease slightly below normal levels due to the southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, though the core of the rainy season will span April and May, extending overall to mid-June. Ideam reiterated warnings of potential El Niño conditions emerging in the second half of the year, linked to warming in the equatorial Pacific, which could alter patterns later.

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A report from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center states that the rains marking early 2026 in Colombia will continue at least until April, driven by La Niña's shift to a neutral phase. Experts warn of precipitation 41.6% more intense than in March 2025, per Ideam. In the second half of the year, there is a 50-60% chance of El Niño returning, potentially decreasing rains and raising temperatures.

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Heavy rainfall in Valle del Cauca since December 24 has triggered emergencies across several municipalities, including a death from a landslide in Guadalajara de Buga. Officials report floods, sudden rises in waterways, and road disruptions, as Ideam forecasts more rain in the coming days. Contingency plans are activated amid the rainy season.

The Kenya Meteorological Department predicts higher-than-normal rainfall across Nairobi and 11 other regions from February 25 to March 3, 2026, with moderate to heavy rains peaking in Nairobi February 25-28. Residents should prepare for flooding, poor visibility, and lightning.

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필리핀 대기지구물리천문청(PAGASA)은 2026년 1월부터 6월까지 2~8개의 열대 사이클론이 발생하거나 국내에 진입할 수 있다고 전망했다. 이 전망은 연초 반기 사이클론 활동이 상대적으로 낮을 것임을 나타낸다. 이는 목요일 제191회 기후 포럼에서 Ana Liza Solis가 발표했다.

 

 

 

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