Ideam declares Colombia's first 2026 rainy season underway until mid-June

Building on earlier forecasts of heavy rains persisting through April, the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Ideam), led by Ghisliane Echeverry, announced the official start of Colombia's first rainy season of 2026, which is set to continue until mid-June. The announcement follows an atypical first quarter with above-normal rainfall across most departments, preventing the customary dry season from December to March.

Ideam explained that elevated rainfall in the first quarter suppressed the typical dry period, with February and March recording significantly higher-than-normal accumulations, including records in some areas that prompted flood and landslide alerts. 'The accumulations recorded during February and March continue to show values above the climatological averages,' the institute stated.

For the remainder of March, above-normal precipitation is expected in inter-Andean valleys, llanero and Amazon piedmonts, as well as La Guajira, Córdoba, Sucre, Bolívar, and Magdalena. Very heavy showers are forecast for Boyacá, Cundinamarca, Santander, Norte de Santander, Meta, Vichada, Arauca, and parts of La Guajira, while normal levels are anticipated in southern Pacific and Amazon regions.

From April onward, rains are projected to ease slightly below normal levels due to the southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, though the core of the rainy season will span April and May, extending overall to mid-June. Ideam reiterated warnings of potential El Niño conditions emerging in the second half of the year, linked to warming in the equatorial Pacific, which could alter patterns later.

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A report from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center states that the rains marking early 2026 in Colombia will continue at least until April, driven by La Niña's shift to a neutral phase. Experts warn of precipitation 41.6% more intense than in March 2025, per Ideam. In the second half of the year, there is a 50-60% chance of El Niño returning, potentially decreasing rains and raising temperatures.

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Ideam reported a generalized rise in maximum temperatures during the first week of May, with values near or above historical records in several regions of the country.

Colombia's Procuraduría General de la Nación issued Circular 001 of 2026, directing public entities to activate urgent measures against the impending El Niño phenomenon expected late in 2026. The directive warns of disciplinary sanctions for non-compliance and stresses preparations for water shortages, energy issues, and fires. Regions like Huila face heightened vulnerability.

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The South African Weather Service forecasts above-normal rainfall for the southeastern and eastern coastal areas during autumn and early winter, while the southwestern regions face below-normal precipitation.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.

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Mexico City's Secretariat of Comprehensive Risk Management and Civil Protection activated a Yellow Alert for heavy rains in nine boroughs, expecting up to 29 millimeters of precipitation this Sunday, April 12. The State of Mexico anticipates 25 to 50 millimeters of rain, possibly with hail, electrical discharges, and wind gusts of 30 to 50 km/h. Poor weather conditions could last until Thursday, April 16.

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