The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened at the opening of trading on Tuesday morning, February 3, 2026, reaching around Rp16.762 per dollar, up 36 points or 0.21 percent from the previous day. This strengthening was influenced by the release of data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recording Indonesia's trade surplus for 2025 at US$41.05 billion. Additionally, January 2026 monthly inflation recorded a deflation of 0.15 percent, although annually it reached 3.55 percent.
On Tuesday, February 3, 2026, the rupiah exchange rate opened stronger in the Jakarta spot market, reaching Rp16.762 per US dollar, up 36 points or 0.21 percent from the previous level of Rp16.798. Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) data showed the rate at Rp16.800 on Monday, February 2, slightly down 4 points from Rp16.796 on the previous Friday.
The rupiah's strengthening was driven by the BPS report revealing a cumulative trade surplus for January-December 2025 of US$41.05 billion, up from US$31.04 billion in 2024. This surplus was supported by exports of US$282.21 billion exceeding imports of US$241.86 billion. The non-oil and gas component contributed a surplus of US$60.75 billion, while oil and gas recorded a deficit of US$19.70 billion. The December 2025 surplus alone was US$2.51 billion, adding foreign exchange supply from exports and supporting rupiah stability.
Additionally, BPS reported year-on-year (yoy) inflation for January 2026 at 3.55 percent, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising from 105.99 in January 2025 to 109.75. Monthly inflation was a deflation of 0.15 percent, triggered by falling food prices such as red chili, bird's eye chili, shallots, broiler chicken meat, and chicken eggs. Annual inflation was driven by the housing, water, electricity, and household fuel group at 11.93 percent (contribution 1.72 percent), mainly electricity tariffs. A low base effect from January 2025 electricity tariff policies contributed to this figure.
Permata Bank's Head Economist Josua Pardede stated, "The BPS inflation release gives a signal that short-term price pressures are easing." He added that the data calms the market, though it may limit further strengthening due to more room for looser interest rate policy. Economic observer Ibrahim Assuaibi also highlighted the larger trade surplus this year as a positive driver.
Overall, the positive sentiment from BPS data shapes expectations for price stability and monetary policy, though rupiah fluctuations are expected to continue.
