Variety predicts tight race at 2026 Critics Choice Awards

The 31st Critics Choice Awards are set for Sunday, with Ryan Coogler's "Sinners" leading nominations at 17 but Variety forecasting Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another" to claim key prizes. The event, hosted by Chelsea Handler and airing live on E!, highlights a competitive field across film and television categories. Predictions suggest a split of honors, reflecting broad enthusiasm in the industry.

The Critics Choice Awards, organized by an association of about 575 voting members, often signal Oscar trends, as seen last year when "Anora" leveraged its win for Academy success after earlier setbacks. This year's ceremony marks the first major awards event, with Oscar voting starting January 12, making outcomes potentially influential in a close contest.

In film, "Sinners," a vampire-themed epic, tops nominations but is projected to secure six awards, including original screenplay for Coogler. Meanwhile, "One Battle After Another" is tipped to win best picture, best director for Anderson, and adapted screenplay. The acting categories promise variety: Timothée Chalamet in "Marty Supreme" for best actor, Jessie Buckley in "Hamnet" for best actress, Benicio del Toro in "One Battle After Another" for supporting actor, and Amy Madigan in "Weapons" for supporting actress.

Alternatives add unpredictability, such as Leonardo DiCaprio in "One Battle After Another" for actor or Ariana Grande in "Wicked: For Good" for supporting actress. Other categories include "KPop Demon Hunters" for best animated feature and "Sinners" for cinematography and score.

On television, predictions favor "The Pitt" for best drama series, with Noah Wyle in the lead role, and "The Studio" for best comedy, starring Seth Rogen. Limited series nods go to "Adolescence," featuring Stephen Graham.

This setup suggests a fragmented night rather than dominance by one title, underscoring diverse critical acclaim.

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Dramatic illustration depicting the tight 2026 Best Picture Oscars race between 'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners', hosted by Conan O'Brien.
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2026 oscars predictions highlight tight best picture race

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As the 98th Academy Awards approach on March 15, 2026, predictions point to a close contest for best picture between 'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners.' Hosted by Conan O'Brien, the ceremony features strong frontrunners in acting categories, with advertising inventory sold out at record rates. Experts anticipate historic milestones in diversity if certain contenders prevail.

The latest episode of Variety's Awards Circuit Podcast features predictions for the 98th Academy Awards, set for Sunday. Panelists discuss tight races between films like Sinners and One Battle After Another. They highlight potential wins in acting, directing and technical categories.

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Nine subjects from Variety's Actors on Actors series, covers, podcasts and other features took home Oscars at the 2026 Academy Awards. 'One Battle After Another' led with six wins, while 'Sinners' secured four, marking a strong night for Warner Bros. The ceremony occurred Sunday evening.

Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another has won best picture at the National Society of Film Critics' 60th annual awards for 2025. The film also secured best director, supporting actress and supporting actor honors. Voting took place on January 3, 2026, among more than 60 prominent critics.

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Ryan Coogler's Sinners has broken the all-time Academy Awards record with 16 nominations, surpassing previous highs set by All About Eve, Titanic and La La Land. The supernatural thriller led a diverse field that included strong showings from international films and Netflix titles, while Warner Bros tied its own record with 30 nods overall. The nominations, announced on January 22, 2026, highlight a surge in global representation and the debut of a new casting category.

Building on its recent sweep at the National Society of Film Critics awards, early predictions for the 2026 Oscars best adapted screenplay category position Paul Thomas Anderson's 'One Battle After Another' as the frontrunner. The film has secured wins and nominations from key precursors including the Critics Choice Awards and USC Scripter Awards. Academy nomination voting starts soon, with official reveals on January 22.

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The Vancouver Film Critics Circle has named One Battle After Another the best film of 2025, adding to its earlier win for best picture from the National Society of Film Critics. Director Ryan Coogler also won for best director and best screenplay.

 

 

 

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