Variety predicts tight race at 2026 Critics Choice Awards

The 31st Critics Choice Awards are set for Sunday, with Ryan Coogler's "Sinners" leading nominations at 17 but Variety forecasting Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another" to claim key prizes. The event, hosted by Chelsea Handler and airing live on E!, highlights a competitive field across film and television categories. Predictions suggest a split of honors, reflecting broad enthusiasm in the industry.

The Critics Choice Awards, organized by an association of about 575 voting members, often signal Oscar trends, as seen last year when "Anora" leveraged its win for Academy success after earlier setbacks. This year's ceremony marks the first major awards event, with Oscar voting starting January 12, making outcomes potentially influential in a close contest.

In film, "Sinners," a vampire-themed epic, tops nominations but is projected to secure six awards, including original screenplay for Coogler. Meanwhile, "One Battle After Another" is tipped to win best picture, best director for Anderson, and adapted screenplay. The acting categories promise variety: Timothée Chalamet in "Marty Supreme" for best actor, Jessie Buckley in "Hamnet" for best actress, Benicio del Toro in "One Battle After Another" for supporting actor, and Amy Madigan in "Weapons" for supporting actress.

Alternatives add unpredictability, such as Leonardo DiCaprio in "One Battle After Another" for actor or Ariana Grande in "Wicked: For Good" for supporting actress. Other categories include "KPop Demon Hunters" for best animated feature and "Sinners" for cinematography and score.

On television, predictions favor "The Pitt" for best drama series, with Noah Wyle in the lead role, and "The Studio" for best comedy, starring Seth Rogen. Limited series nods go to "Adolescence," featuring Stephen Graham.

This setup suggests a fragmented night rather than dominance by one title, underscoring diverse critical acclaim.

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Dramatic illustration depicting the tight 2026 Best Picture Oscars race between 'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners', hosted by Conan O'Brien.
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2026 oscars predictions highlight tight best picture race

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As the 98th Academy Awards approach on March 15, 2026, predictions point to a close contest for best picture between 'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners.' Hosted by Conan O'Brien, the ceremony features strong frontrunners in acting categories, with advertising inventory sold out at record rates. Experts anticipate historic milestones in diversity if certain contenders prevail.

The latest episode of Variety's Awards Circuit Podcast features predictions for the 98th Academy Awards, set for Sunday. Panelists discuss tight races between films like Sinners and One Battle After Another. They highlight potential wins in acting, directing and technical categories.

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Nine subjects from Variety's Actors on Actors series, covers, podcasts and other features took home Oscars at the 2026 Academy Awards. 'One Battle After Another' led with six wins, while 'Sinners' secured four, marking a strong night for Warner Bros. The ceremony occurred Sunday evening.

The 98th Academy Awards on March 15, 2026, celebrated adaptations with Paul Thomas Anderson's action comedy One Battle After Another—loosely inspired by Thomas Pynchon's Vineland—winning six Oscars: Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Directing, Best Supporting Actor (Sean Penn), Best Editing, and inaugural Best Casting. Other literary adaptations shone, including Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet and Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein.

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Building on his SAG Awards victory, Michael B. Jordan won the best actor Oscar at the 98th Academy Awards for his dual role in Ryan Coogler's *Sinners*. He advised fellow artists to 'dream big and be kind.' *Sinners* earned four wins in a competitive field.

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