Think tank Anif warned that the net debt of Colombia's National Central Government could exceed 71% of GDP in three years, a threshold incompatible with the fiscal rule. It identified public spending rigidity as Colombia's core fiscal issue. Current levels near 58% of GDP recall 19th-century crises.
In a report published on May 4, 2026, Anif noted that the gross debt of Gustavo Petro's government has grown by $313 billion daily. Current net public debt levels, near 58% of GDP, have not been seen since the late 19th century during the War of the Thousand Days, amid external debt payment issues and hyperinflation.
"We project that the net debt of the National Central Government could exceed 71% of GDP in just three years, a threshold that, according to the fiscal rule, is considered incompatible with a sustainable path for an economy like Colombia's," the Anif report states.
Anif attributes the fiscal problem to public spending rigidity, expanded since the 1991 Constitution. Between 2019 and 2026, spending on health, pensions, and regional transfers accounted for over 64% of the increase in operating expenses. "Even the government's operating spending has grown notably above household spending in recent years. However, this growth has not translated into exceptional economic performance or substantial improvements in inequality indicators," Anif adds.
Still, Anif sees room for maneuver in the executive branch: the government states 8% of the 2026 General National Budget is flexible, but it could reach 14% with autonomous decisions and up to 28% including personnel and contracting.
