China has issued a travel advisory urging its citizens to avoid Japan in response to remarks by Japan's prime minister on Taiwan. This has led to widespread cancellations by Chinese tourists, impacting Japan's economy. Historical precedents suggest the dispute could persist for some time.
China's government expressed anger over a statement by Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi earlier this month, in which she said Japan's military could become involved if China takes action against Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing claims must come under its rule. Japan has shown no sign of retracting the remarks, attempting to prevent escalation while standing firm.
Beijing is employing a familiar tactic of economic pressure, similar to tariffs on Australian wines in 2020 and restrictions on Philippine banana imports in 2012. Liu Jiangyong, an international relations professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said, “China’s countermeasures are all kept secret and will be rolled out one by one. Everything is possible, because this involves the core of the nation’s core interests.”
The travel advisory, issued just days ago, has prompted immediate cancellations. Rie Takeda's tearoom in Tokyo's Asakusa district sees about 3,000 Chinese visitors annually, but 200 have already canceled bookings through January. She hopes they return by Chinese New Year in February, though past disputes suggest a longer recovery.
In 2012, a territorial dispute over uninhabited islands led to boycotts and a one-fourth drop in Chinese visitors to Japan. Nomura Research Institute economist Takahide Kiuchi estimates the current advisory could cost Japan 1.8 trillion yen ($11.5 billion), reducing annual economic growth by 0.3 percentage points. More than 8 million Chinese visited Japan in the first 10 months of this year, accounting for 23% of total tourists, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization.
Group tours have been hit hard: Gamagori Hotel in Aichi prefecture lost over 2,000 guests, and Nichu Syomu, a tour company for Chinese visitors, reported 300 cancellations comparable to 2012 levels. Tour operator Nana Enomoto said, “It’s a shame,” as Chinese tourism was recovering.
Not all tourists canceled; Kyren Zhu, an accountant from Beijing, scrapped a fall foliage trip after her parents' warnings, though her friend proceeded uneventfully. Livia Du, who runs a ski lodge in Hokkaido, had two cancellations quickly replaced by other Chinese guests. One cited alignment with China's stance, another followed government company instructions to avoid Japan.
Pressure extended to entertainment: Releases of Japanese films “Cells at Work!” and “Crayon Shin-chan the Movie: Super Hot! The Spicy Kasukabe Dancers” were postponed in China. A Shanghai comedy festival canceled Japanese shows, and a book project importing a Japanese comic was suspended.
Seafood exports remain uncertain; Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning denied reports of reversing a two-year ban, stating Japan failed to provide needed documentation. She warned, “Japan should first retract its erroneous remarks and take concrete actions... Otherwise, China will have to take further measures.”
Sheila A. Smith, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted, “The diplomatic challenge for both sides is that they have their own domestic audiences and so they don’t want to be perceived as backing down.” Disputes with countries like Australia and Canada lingered over a year until new leaders facilitated repairs.