China hits US$1 trillion trade surplus as reserves lag

China's trade surplus has surpassed the US$1 trillion mark in the first 11 months of the year, yet growth in its official foreign exchange reserves has lagged behind, prompting questions about where the money has gone.

Recent data on China's external accounts reveal a record-breaking trade surplus exceeding US$1 trillion in the first 11 months of the year. This milestone underscores the strength of its exports, but the growth in official foreign exchange reserves has not matched pace, creating a conundrum.

The paradox raises a key question: where has all that money gone? While China's economy remains robust, the lag in reserve accumulation could point to intricate financial channels or policy decisions at play.

This development highlights China's dominant role in global trade while alerting investors to possible economic imbalances.

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Illustration showing South Korea's October current account surplus dip due to Chuseok holiday against record 10-month high, with graphs, port, and festive elements.
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South Korea's October current account surplus narrows sharply

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South Korea's current account surplus narrowed sharply in October due to fewer working days from the Chuseok holiday, central bank data showed. Exports fell amid the extended break, but the cumulative surplus for the first 10 months hit a record high.

China's exports rose 5.5 percent in 2025 to US$3.77 trillion, while imports stayed flat at US$2.58 trillion, yielding a record trade surplus of US$1.19 trillion. The performance beat forecasts despite trade headwinds, fueled by diversification into markets like Asean and Africa. Officials attribute the strong results to supportive policies and the country's industrial depth.

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Critics’ concerns about China’s industrial overcapacity overlook the broader picture of the country’s balance of payments. While China maintains a surplus in goods trade, it is offset by significant deficits in services and investment income. This balanced approach points to a more nuanced economic exchange rather than simple dumping of excess production.

South Korea posted its largest-ever annual current account surplus in 2025, fueled by robust exports amid strong semiconductor demand. According to Bank of Korea data, the surplus reached $123.05 billion, up from $99.97 billion the previous year. This marks a new record, surpassing the prior high of $105.1 billion set in 2015.

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O desempenho comercial da China superou as expectativas no início de 2026, com as exportações subindo acentuadamente. A taxa de crescimento atingiu 21,8% em relação ao ano anterior para janeiro e fevereiro, comparado a 5,5% no ano anterior. Esse surto foi impulsionado por setores-chave em meio à demanda global.

O yuan onshore da China fechou no seu nível mais forte desde maio de 2023, negociado a 7,0066 por dólar, em meio a um dólar americano enfraquecido. Esse desenvolvimento, tipicamente altista para o bitcoin, não elevou a criptomoeda, que permanece abaixo de US$ 90.000. Fatores como liquidez fina no fim do ano e saídas de ETF estão abafando o rali esperado.

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