Egypt accused Ethiopia on Saturday of operating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in a unilateral and hydrologically inconsistent manner, leading to major swings in the Blue Nile's flow. The Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation stated that abrupt and irregular water releases in recent weeks forced Cairo to open the Toshka spillway to preserve balance in its water system.
The Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation issued a statement noting that Ethiopia released about 485 million cubic meters of water on September 10, 2025, before sharply increasing discharges to 780 million cubic meters on September 27. Lake levels then dropped by nearly one meter—equivalent to roughly 2 billion cubic meters—before outflows decreased again to around 380 million cubic meters on September 30.
The ministry pointed out that internationally recognized operating rules for major dams require gradually reducing reservoir levels from 640 meters to about 625 meters by the end of the hydrological year. However, Ethiopia closed the GERD's emergency spillway on October 8, reducing releases to 139 million cubic meters and maintaining an average of 160 million cubic meters per day through October 20.
This pattern—sharp reductions to build storage followed by sudden large releases exceeding operational needs—indicates a lack of a stable and technically sound operating plan, according to the ministry. On October 21, outflows surged unexpectedly to 300 million cubic meters after reopening the emergency spillway, then hovered around 320 million cubic meters daily for ten days before closure on October 31.
From November 1 to 20, average discharges rose to about 180 million cubic meters per day, 80% higher than the historical norm of 100 million cubic meters for the same period. The ministry warned that such sharp fluctuations disrupt operations at downstream dams, requiring managers to take precautionary measures against sudden inflows.
The Nile Revenue Committee, which continuously monitors the situation using hydrological models and satellite data, decided to open the Toshka spillway to absorb excess water and stabilize the system, delaying planned works to expand its discharge capacity. Despite the volatility, the statement stressed that Egypt's water system 'remains fully stable and under control,' with the High Aswan Dam continuing as the country's primary safeguard against unpredictable upstream releases. Egypt reaffirmed its commitment to professional and disciplined water management to protect national interests.