A new analysis of NHL draft history from 1963 to 2023 reveals high success rates for top picks but sharp drops as selection position increases. First overall selections boast a 95.1% chance of playing at least one NHL game, while later picks face steeper odds. The study highlights notable players and round-by-round trends to underscore the role of scouting and luck in drafting.
The NHL Entry Draft has long been a high-stakes event where teams aim to build future success, but outcomes vary widely. Drawing on data from Hockey Reference, Quant Hockey, and the NHL, this examination covers drafts from 1963 through 2023, tracking career games and points for players selected in various positions.
For the top pick, 95.1% of first overall selections (58 out of 61) played at least one NHL game, with 93.4% reaching 100 games and 36.1% surpassing 1,000 games. Notable stars include Mario Lemieux, Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin, and Connor McDavid. The second overall pick follows closely, at 93.4% for one game, featuring players like Marcel Dionne, Brendan Shanahan, and Evgeni Malkin. Success dips noticeably by the fourth pick, where only 77.0% play 100 games, and continues downward; the 32nd pick sees 80.0% play at least one game but just 27.2% reach 300.
Across the first round, 88.8% of picks (1,262 out of 1,420) appear in at least one NHL game, dropping to 13.5% for 1,000 games. Later rounds fare worse: second round at 68.0% for one game, third at 52.5%, and seventh at 25.4%. Standouts from deeper selections include Patrice Bergeron (second round, Boston), Mark Messier (third round, Edmonton), and Brett Hull (sixth round, Calgary).
The analysis notes the draft's evolution, with expanded rounds affecting comparisons, and emphasizes that no pick guarantees success. As one observer put it, 'Plenty of research, scouting, and luck goes into every pick... Anything can happen at the NHL Draft.' This underscores the unpredictable nature of talent identification in professional hockey.
