Rupiah rebounds after BI holds benchmark rate steady

The rupiah rebounded at Thursday's market opening in Jakarta on January 22, 2026, reversing the previous day's weakening toward Rp17,000 per US dollar. The gain was driven by market euphoria over Bank Indonesia's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.75 percent, alongside government fiscal measures for economic recovery. Analysts forecast trading in the Rp16,900-Rp16,950 range.

After weakening to around Rp16,959 per US dollar on Wednesday amid anticipation of the BI Governing Board Meeting, the rupiah strengthened by 7 points or 0.04 percent to Rp16,929 per US dollar at Thursday's opening in Jakarta (January 22, 2026) from the prior close of Rp16,936. By 09:24 WIB, it rose further to Rp16,892, up 44 points or 0.26 percent.

Analyst Rully Nova from Bank Woori Saudara attributed the rebound to positive sentiment from BI's policy to hold the BI-Rate at 4.75 percent, with deposit facility at 3.75 percent and lending facility at 5.5 percent, following the RDG on January 20-21. "The rupiah is expected to trade today in the Rp16,900-Rp16,950 range, still buoyed by BI's steady interest rate decision," he said.

The decision supports rupiah stability amid global uncertainties, aligns with the 2026-2027 inflation target of 2.5 ±1 percent, and aids growth. BI plans to strengthen monetary transmission, macroprudential measures, and monitor potential rate cuts.

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa noted the widened 2025 budget deficit to 2.92 percent as a countercyclical measure against economic slowdown, with economist Ibrahim Assuaibi highlighting positive impacts. Global sentiment also improved as US-Denmark tensions over Greenland eased, reducing tariff threats on Europe.

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Jakarta traders celebrate Rupiah gain against USD amid weak US data and steady Bank Indonesia rates.
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Rupiah strengthens amid weak US economic data

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The rupiah strengthened 0.16 percent to Rp16.665 per US dollar at Wednesday's market open, alongside weakening US economic data. Market participants await Bank Indonesia's Board of Governors meeting announcement, expected to hold the policy rate at 4.75 percent. Domestic inflation slowed to 2.72 percent year-on-year in November 2025.

The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar weakened at the opening of trading on Tuesday (January 20, 2026) to around Rp16,977-Rp16,985 per US dollar. Analysts predict limited strengthening potential due to fiscal pressures and awaiting the Bank Indonesia meeting. Concerns over the budget deficit nearing the 3 percent limit add to currency volatility.

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The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened at the opening of trading on Tuesday morning, February 3, 2026, reaching around Rp16.762 per dollar, up 36 points or 0.21 percent from the previous day. This strengthening was influenced by the release of data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recording Indonesia's trade surplus for 2025 at US$41.05 billion. Additionally, January 2026 monthly inflation recorded a deflation of 0.15 percent, although annually it reached 3.55 percent.

The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar weakened 0.05 percent to Rp16,790 per dollar at the opening of trading on Tuesday, January 27, 2026. The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) also opened down 0.31 percent at 8,947, though it is predicted to potentially strengthen if it holds the support level. This movement is influenced by geopolitical tensions between the US and Canada regarding trade with China.

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Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said Indonesia's rupiah should strengthen due to strong national economic fundamentals. However, the rupiah weakened to Rp16,997 per US dollar on March 16, 2026. He remains confident the IHSG will hit 10,000 by end-2026.

The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) opened stronger by 9.80 points or 0.11 percent to 8,555.66 on Friday (November 28, 2025). Markets await Bank Indonesia's monetary policy direction for 2026 amid optimism for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Positive sentiments are also driven by rupiah strengthening and rebound in Asia-Pacific markets.

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Rating agency Moody's maintained Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at Baa2 but adjusted the outlook from stable to negative on February 5, 2026. This came alongside the release of 2025 economic growth data at 5.11 percent, higher than the previous year. Authorities including OJK and Bank Indonesia affirmed that it does not signal weakening economic fundamentals.

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