Rupiah rebounds after BI holds benchmark rate steady

The rupiah rebounded at Thursday's market opening in Jakarta on January 22, 2026, reversing the previous day's weakening toward Rp17,000 per US dollar. The gain was driven by market euphoria over Bank Indonesia's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.75 percent, alongside government fiscal measures for economic recovery. Analysts forecast trading in the Rp16,900-Rp16,950 range.

After weakening to around Rp16,959 per US dollar on Wednesday amid anticipation of the BI Governing Board Meeting, the rupiah strengthened by 7 points or 0.04 percent to Rp16,929 per US dollar at Thursday's opening in Jakarta (January 22, 2026) from the prior close of Rp16,936. By 09:24 WIB, it rose further to Rp16,892, up 44 points or 0.26 percent.

Analyst Rully Nova from Bank Woori Saudara attributed the rebound to positive sentiment from BI's policy to hold the BI-Rate at 4.75 percent, with deposit facility at 3.75 percent and lending facility at 5.5 percent, following the RDG on January 20-21. "The rupiah is expected to trade today in the Rp16,900-Rp16,950 range, still buoyed by BI's steady interest rate decision," he said.

The decision supports rupiah stability amid global uncertainties, aligns with the 2026-2027 inflation target of 2.5 ±1 percent, and aids growth. BI plans to strengthen monetary transmission, macroprudential measures, and monitor potential rate cuts.

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa noted the widened 2025 budget deficit to 2.92 percent as a countercyclical measure against economic slowdown, with economist Ibrahim Assuaibi highlighting positive impacts. Global sentiment also improved as US-Denmark tensions over Greenland eased, reducing tariff threats on Europe.

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Jakarta traders celebrate Rupiah gain against USD amid weak US data and steady Bank Indonesia rates.
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Rupiah strengthens amid weak US economic data

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The rupiah strengthened 0.16 percent to Rp16.665 per US dollar at Wednesday's market open, alongside weakening US economic data. Market participants await Bank Indonesia's Board of Governors meeting announcement, expected to hold the policy rate at 4.75 percent. Domestic inflation slowed to 2.72 percent year-on-year in November 2025.

The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar weakened at the opening of trading on Tuesday (January 20, 2026) to around Rp16,977-Rp16,985 per US dollar. Analysts predict limited strengthening potential due to fiscal pressures and awaiting the Bank Indonesia meeting. Concerns over the budget deficit nearing the 3 percent limit add to currency volatility.

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The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened at the opening of trading on Tuesday morning, February 3, 2026, reaching around Rp16.762 per dollar, up 36 points or 0.21 percent from the previous day. This strengthening was influenced by the release of data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recording Indonesia's trade surplus for 2025 at US$41.05 billion. Additionally, January 2026 monthly inflation recorded a deflation of 0.15 percent, although annually it reached 3.55 percent.

The Indonesian rupiah traded fluktuatively and closed weaker against the US dollar on Tuesday, overshadowed by forecasts of global economic disruptions in 2026. Analysts warn that intensifying great-power competition and growth slowdowns could heighten uncertainties for emerging markets like Indonesia.

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Asian-Pacific stock markets surged at the opening of trading on Monday, December 22, 2025, as investors awaited China's interest rate decision. In Indonesia, the IHSG opened up 0.23 percent at 8,629, though it is predicted to potentially correct amid the rupiah's weakening. The World Bank's warning on Indonesia's fiscal deficit also influenced market sentiment.

The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) of the Indonesia Stock Exchange opened up 22.32 points or 0.24 percent to 9,156.19 on Tuesday (January 20, 2026), despite weakness in Asian and global stock markets. Market observers warn of potential correction due to high valuations following yesterday's all-time high. Investors await the Bank Indonesia Board of Governors Meeting, expected to hold the benchmark interest rate steady.

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The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) opened up 39.71 points or 0.44 percent to 9,072.29 on Thursday morning, amid market concerns over threats to the independence of the US Federal Reserve due to President Donald Trump's attacks on Chairman Jerome Powell. These worries are reinforced by Producer Price Index (PPI) data showing price pressures, potentially leading the Fed to hold or raise interest rates. However, analysts view this strength as a signal of an investment shift toward a supercycle supporting Indonesia's stock market throughout 2026.

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