Three Gogois, one test: Opposition banks on unity to dent BJP in Upper Assam

A Congress-led opposition alliance with Raijor Dal and Assam Jatiya Parishad was sealed last week, ahead of Assam's assembly elections. In Upper Assam's key Ahom belt, Gaurav Gogoi, Akhil Gogoi, and Lurinjyoti Gogoi are contesting nearby seats. After vote splits hurt in 2021, the pact aims to consolidate support against BJP.

A Congress-led opposition alliance, including Raijor Dal and Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), was finalised last week after years of negotiations, breakdowns, and a last-minute agreement, just over two weeks before Assam's assembly polls. The leaders of the three parties—all surnamed Gogoi—are contesting proximate seats in Upper Assam, spanning Charaideo, Dhemaji, Dibrugarh, Golaghat, Jorhat, Lakhimpur, Majuli, Sivasagar, and Tinsukia districts. Gaurav Gogoi, Assam Congress president and Lok Sabha MP, is making his state poll debut from Jorhat. Akhil Gogoi, Raijor Dal chief formed post-anti-CAA protests, seeks to retain Sivasagar. Lurinjyoti Gogoi, AJP founder and ex-AASU leader, contests Khowang for his first win. In 2021, Congress secured only five seats in the region's 34, with Akhil Gogoi winning Sivasagar; two Congress MLAs later defected to BJP. Congress leader Krishanu Baruah from Jorhat stated, “It’s very straightforward, the votes won’t be divided between the parties this time.” Post-poll analysis showed AJP or Raijor Dal votes exceeded BJP's margin in 14 seats, 11 in Upper Assam. In Khowang's Azarguri village, retired teacher Tarun Ram Phukan (71) noted AJP's 9,000 votes in 2021 and Lurinjyoti's strong Lok Sabha showing, suggesting an edge without splits. Raijor Dal's Amlan Gogoi highlighted coordination meetings and joint polling efforts. Jorhat observer Rintu Goswami cautioned that 2021 figures rode an anti-CAA wave unlikely to repeat, predicting gains more in Lower Assam. Gauhati University professor Akhil Ranjan Dutta observed Raijor Dal's growing footprint aiding minority areas.

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